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The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve

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  • Yoosoon Chang

  • Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez

  • Christian Matthes

Abstract

We investigate the influence of the U.S. government’s spending and taxation decisions, along with the monetary policy choices made by the Federal Reserve, on the dynamics of the nominal yield curve. Aggregate government spending moves the long end of the yield curve, whereas monetary policy and changes in taxation move the short end of the yield curve on impact. Disentangling different types of government spending, we find that only government consumption exerts a discernible influence on the short end of the yield curve. The effects are generally transient and disappear after one year.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gómez-Rodríguez & Christian Matthes, 2024. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," Working Papers No 02/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0129
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    2. Naoya Nagasaka, 2026. "Identifying Macro Shocks from Micro Evidence: A Mixed Autoregressive Approach," Discussion Paper Series DP2026-18, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

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    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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