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Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Minsu Chang
  • Xiaohong Chen
  • Frank Schorfheide

Abstract

We develop a state-space model with a state-transition equation that takes the form of a functional vector autoregression and stacks macroeconomic aggregates and a cross-sectional density. The measurement equation captures the error in estimating log densities from repeated cross-sectional samples. The log densities and the transition kernels in the law of motion of the states are approximated by sieves, which leads to a finite-dimensional representation in terms of macroeconomic aggregates and sieve coefficents. We use this model to study the joint dynamics of technology shocks, per capita GDP, employment rates, and the earnings distribution. We find that the estimated spillovers between aggregate and distributional dynamics are generally small, a positive technology shock tends to decrease inequality, and a shock that raises the inequality of earnings leads to a small but not significant increase in GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Minsu Chang & Xiaohong Chen & Frank Schorfheide, 2021. "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 28853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28853
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    Cited by:

    1. Dong, Chaohua & Chen, Rong & Xiao, Zhijie & Liu, Weiyi, 2024. "Functional quantile autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
    2. Yoosoon Chang & Soyoung Kim & Joon Y. Park, 2025. "How Do Macroaggregates and Income Distribution Interact Dynamically? A Novel Structural Mixed Autoregression with Aggregate and Functional Variables," Working Papers No 01/2025, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    3. Denis Koshelev & Alexey Ponomarenko & Sergei Seleznev, 2023. "Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting," Papers 2308.05753, arXiv.org.
    4. Bilbiie, F. & Primiceri, G. E. & Tambalotti, A., 2022. "Inequality and Business Cycles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2275, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Yoosoon Chang & Yongok Choi & Chang Sik Kim & J. Isaac Miller & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Common Trends and Country Specific Heterogeneities in Long-Run World Energy Consumption," CAMA Working Papers 2024-04, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Yoosoon Chang & Fabio Gomez-Rodriguez & Christian Matthes, 2023. "The Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policies on the Shape of the Yield Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Yoosoon Chang & Jamie L. Cross, 2023. "Oil and the Stock Market Revisited: A Mixed Functional VAR Approach," CAMA Working Papers 2023-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Matthew D. Cocci & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller, 2021. "Standard Errors for Calibrated Parameters," Papers 2109.08109, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    9. repec:cam:camjip:2234 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Matthew D. Cocci & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, 2021. "Standard Errors for Calibrated Parameters," Working Papers 2021-20, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    11. Stephanie Ettmeier, 2022. "No Taxation without Reallocation: The Distributional Effects of Tax Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2022, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Pesce, Simone & Errico, Marco & Pollio, Luigi, 2025. "Nonlinearities and heterogeneity in firms response to aggregate fluctuations: what can we learn from machine learning?," Working Paper Series 3107, European Central Bank.
    13. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller, 2023. "Full‐information estimation of heterogeneous agent models using macro and micro data," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 1-35, January.
    14. Yoosoon Chang & Ana María Herrera & Elena Pesavento, 2023. "Oil prices uncertainty, endogenous regime switching, and inflation anchoring," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(6), pages 820-839, September.
    15. Marcella Lucchetta, 2025. "Bank Heterogeneity and Crisis Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis of Systemic Risk," Working Papers 2025: 05, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    16. Zheng Gong, 2025. "When Does Household Heterogeneity Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_624v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised Sep 2025.
    17. Won-Ki Seo & Dakyung Seong, 2025. "Functional Linear Projection and Impulse Response Analysis," Papers 2503.08364, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    18. Laura Liu & Mikkel Plagborg-M?ller, 2021. "Full-Information Estimation of Heterogeneous Agent Models Using Macro and Micro Data," CAEPR Working Papers 2021-001 Classification- , Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    19. Sven Otto & Luis Winter, 2025. "Functional Factor Regression with an Application to Electricity Price Curve Modeling," Papers 2503.12611, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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