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Inequality and Business Cycles

Author

Listed:
  • Florin O. Bilbiie
  • Giorgio Primiceri
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

We quantify the connection between inequality and business cycles in a medium-scale New Keynesian model with tractable household heterogeneity, estimated with aggregate and cross-sectional data. We find that inequality substantially amplifies cyclical fluctuations. The primary source of this amplification is cyclical precautionary saving behavior. Savers reduce their consumption to insure themselves against the idiosyncratic risk of large income drops, which rises in recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Florin O. Bilbiie & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2023. "Inequality and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31729
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    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Brundage & Dan McGee & Daniele Tavani, 2026. "Theoretical Approaches in Stratification Economics," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Race and Stratification, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alice Albonico & Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque, 2024. "The (Ir)Relevance of Rule‐of‐Thumb Consumers for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(4), pages 769-804, June.
    3. Cantore, Cristiano & Leonardi, Edoardo, 2025. "Monetary–fiscal interaction and the liquidity of government debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. repec:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_624 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dusan Stojanovic, 2023. "Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Implications for Income and Wealth Inequality," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp760, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    6. Xu, Zhiwei & Xue, Jianpo & Zhang, Zhewei, 2025. "Understanding the distributional effects of income uncertainty shocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    7. Cristiano Cantore & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Saverio Gaudio, 2025. "The Unequal Costs of Pollution: Carbon Tax, Inequality, and Redistribution," Papers 2503.00142, arXiv.org.
    8. Zheng Gong, 2025. "When Does Household Heterogeneity Matter for Aggregate Fluctuations?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_624v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised Sep 2025.
    9. Marco D’Amico & Martina Fazio, 2025. "Modelling income risk dynamics in the UK: a parametric approach," Bank of England working papers 1129, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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