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Financial deepening and economic growth

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  • Keshab Bhattarai

Abstract

The core of Shapley-Shubik games and general equilibrium models with a Venn diagram is applied for a theory on the role of real finance in economic growth among advanced economies. Then the dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) models for Germany, France, the UK, Japan and the USA are constructed to assess the validity of the over-financing hypothesis that has reappeared after the financial crisis of 2008. Actual financial deepening ratios observed in the nonconsolidated balance sheet of the OECD exceeded by factors of 3.5, 2.4, 5.1, 11.6 and 4.8 than the optimal financial deepening ratios implied by DCGE models, respectively, in these countries because of excessive leveraging and bubbles up to 19 times of GDP which were responsible for this great recession. Containing such massive fluctuations for macroeconomic stability and growth in these economies are not possible in conventional fiscal and monetary policy models and require a DCGE analysis like this along with adoption of separating equilibrium strategy in line of Miller-Stiglitz-Roth mechanisms to avoid problem of asymmetric information in the process of financial intermediation so that the gaps between actual and optimal ratios of financial deepening remain as small as possible.

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  • Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial deepening and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1133-1150, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:11:p:1133-1150
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.993130
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    2. Tarna Silue, 2021. "Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth : Evidence in the Digital Environment of Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-03281843, HAL.
    3. Qichun He, 2016. "Do Political Factors Cause the Regional Inequality in the Reform-Era China?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 387-398, May.
    4. Pradhan, Rudra & Arvin, Mak & Norman, Neville & Bahmani, Sahar, 2020. "The dynamics of bondmarket development, stockmarket development and economic growth: Evidence from the G-20 countries," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 25(49), pages 119-147.
    5. Raihan, Selim & Osmani, S. R. & Khalily, M. A. Baqui, 2017. "The Macro Impact of Microfinance in Bangladesh: A CGE Analysis," Conference papers 332868, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Keshab Bhattarai, 2016. "Growth and Income Distributions in Four EU Economies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 263-277, August.
    7. Keshab Bhattarai, 2017. "Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Financial Liberalization in an Open Economy: Lessons from a Multi-Sectoral Dynamic CGE Model for Nepal," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 181-198, January.
    8. Keshab Raj Bhattarai & Sushanta K. Mallick, 2015. "Macroeconomic policy coordination in the global economy: VAR and BVAR-DSGE analyses," EcoMod2015 8610, EcoMod.
    9. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial deepening and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1133-1150, March.
    10. Xinxin Wang & Jingjing Hong & Pengpeng Fan & Shidan Xu & Zhixian Chai & Yubo Zhuo, 2021. "Is China’s urban–rural difference in population aging rational? An international comparison with key indicators," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3), pages 1866-1891, September.
    11. Raihan, Selim & Osmani, S.R. & Khalily, M.A. Baqui, 2017. "The macro impact of microfinance in Bangladesh: A CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Shangmei Zhao & Jiang He & Haijun Yang, 2018. "Population Ageing, Financial Deepening and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    13. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 178-195, February.
    14. Tarna Silue, 2021. "Financial Inclusion and Economic Growth : Evidence in the Digital Environment of Developing Countries," CERDI Working papers hal-03281843, HAL.
    15. Islam, Khan & O’Gorman, Melanie, 2019. "Microcredit contract design: A macroeconomic evaluation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-1.

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    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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