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The long-term interest rate conundrum: not unraveled yet?

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  • Tao Wu

Abstract

In congressional testimony on February 16, 2005, Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan characterized the recent behavior of long-term interest rates as a \\"conundrum.\\" Typically, long-term rates tend to rise as monetary policymakers raise short-term rates. But not in the current episode. Despite steady monetary tightening beginning in the middle of 2004, the yields on long-term U.S. Treasury securities actually have declined since then by about 50 basis points. As a consequence, the current level of long-term interest rates seems to be well below what one would expect on the basis of economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Wu, 2005. "The long-term interest rate conundrum: not unraveled yet?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr29.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2005:i:apr29:n:2005-08
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Conterius, Simeon & Akimov, Alexandr & Su, Jen-Je & Roca, Eduardo, 2023. "Do foreign investors have a positive impact on the domestic government bonds market? A panel pooled mean group approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 863-875.
    2. Fernando Broner & Daragh Clancy & Aitor Erce & Alberto Martin, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Foreign Holdings of Public Debt [When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1155-1204.
    3. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
    4. Craine, Roger & Martin, Vance L., 2009. "The Interest Rate Conundrum," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8b98n6vh, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
    6. Craine, Roger & Martin, Vance L, 2009. "Interest Rate Conundrum," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0409193t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Yash P. Mehra, 2006. "Inflation uncertainty and the recent low level of the long bond rate," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Sum), pages 225-253.
    8. Weißbach, Rafael & Ponyatovskyy, Vladyslav & Zimmermann, Guido, 2006. "The Yield of Ten-Year T-Bonds: Stumbling Towards a 'Good' Forecast," Technical Reports 2006,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.

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