IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2012-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows: Evidence from Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
  • Ms. Filiz D Unsal

Abstract

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows: Evidence from Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/265, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/265
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=40080
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua Felman & Simon Gray & Mangal Goswami & Andreas A. Jobst & Mahmood Pradhan & Shanaka Peiris & Dulani Seneviratne, 2014. "ASEAN-5 bond market development: Where does it stand? Where is it going?," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(1), pages 60-75, May.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
    3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2012. "Interest rate co-movements, global factors and the long end of the term spread," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 183-192.
    4. Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, 2010. "Foreign Participation in Emerging Markets’ Local Currency Bond Markets," IMF Working Papers 2010/088, International Monetary Fund.
    5. David K. Backus & Jonathan H. Wright, 2007. "Cracking the Conundrum," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 293-329.
    6. Mahmood Pradhan & Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Mr. Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Mr. Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/010, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
    8. Mahmood Pradhan & Ravi Balakrishnan & Reza Baqir & Geoffrey M Heenan & Sylwia Nowak & Ceyda Oner & Sanjaya P Panth, 2011. "Policy Responses to Capital Flows in Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 11/10, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Craine Roger & Martin Vance L, 2009. "Interest Rate Conundrum," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 2001. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Representation Theory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(6), pages 1113-1141, December.
    11. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
    12. Ronald Lange, 2005. "Determinants of the long-term yield in Canada: an open economy VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 681-693.
    13. Ramon Moreno, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission and the long-term interest rate in emerging markets," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 61-79, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. D. Filiz Unsal, 2013. "Capital Flows and Financial Stability: Monetary Policy and Macroprudential Responses," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(1), pages 233-285, March.
    15. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    16. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 35.
    17. Hallin, Marc & Liska, Roman, 2007. "Determining the Number of Factors in the General Dynamic Factor Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 603-617, June.
    18. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2008. "Monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies: what is new?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 1-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2012. "To Cut or Not to Cut? That is the (Central Bank’s) Question In Search of the Neutral Interest Rate in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/243, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victor Pontines & Reza Y. Siregar, 2017. "Non-core Liabilities and Monetary Policy Transmission in Indonesia during the Post-2007 Global Financial Crisis," CAMA Working Papers 2017-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Zhaosu MENG & Wei WEI & Xiaotong LIU & Kedong YIN, 2018. "The Influence of International Capital Flow on the Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.
    3. Hamza, Hichem & Saadaoui, Zied, 2018. "Monetary transmission through the debt financing channel of Islamic banks: Does PSIA play a role?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 557-570.
    4. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    5. Mansur, Alfan & Syaifullah, Syaifullah, 2016. "Membangun Kredibilitas Kebijakan Moneter Melalui Suku Bunga Acuan Baru [Improving Credibility of Monetary Policy through A New Policy Rate]," MPRA Paper 93938, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    6. Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Imo Godwin Ibe & Uche Boniface Ugwuanyi & N. J. Modebe & Emmanuel Kalu Agbaeze, 2018. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Industrial Sector Growth: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    7. Tafajul Hossain & Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in India Under Monetary-targeting and Multiple-indicator Approach Regimes," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(1), pages 108-124, June.
    8. Delano S. Villanueva, 2015. "Challenges for Inflation Targeting," Working Papers wp10, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    9. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Cham, Yaya, 2023. "Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy in The Gambia," MPRA Paper 117026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 2015/207, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," PIER Discussion Papers 7, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Jarko Fidrmuc & Svatopluk Kapounek, 2020. "The Risks and Financial Vulnerability of Foreign Bank Ownership in CEECs: Evidence from Exchange Rate Depreciation after the Financial Crisis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 34-48, January.
    14. David Gabauer & Sowmya Subramaniam & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "On the transmission mechanism of Asia‐Pacific yield curve characteristics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 473-488, January.
    15. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," PIER Discussion Papers 7., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    16. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR," Papers 2302.14114, arXiv.org.
    17. Apanisile, Tolulope Olumuyiwa & Akinlo, Anthony Enisan, 2022. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in an Implicit Inflation Targeting Regime: The Case of Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroyuki ITO & Phuong TRAN, 2019. "Managing the Yield Curve in a Financially Globalized World," Discussion papers 19012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna & Bhaduri, Saumitra, 2016. "Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 118-139.
    3. Kučera, Adam, 2020. "Identification of triggers of U.S. yield curve movements," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    6. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2016. "Efficient estimation of approximate factor models via penalized maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 1-18.
    7. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2017. "Dynamic factor models with infinite-dimensional factor space: Asymptotic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(1), pages 74-92.
    8. Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
    9. Lucia Alessi & Mark Kerssenfischer, 2019. "The response of asset prices to monetary policy shocks: Stronger than thought," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 661-672, August.
    10. Eichler, Michael & Motta, Giovanni & von Sachs, Rainer, 2011. "Fitting dynamic factor models to non-stationary time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 51-70, July.
    11. Juho Koistinen & Bernd Funovits, 2022. "Estimation of Impulse-Response Functions with Dynamic Factor Models: A New Parametrization," Papers 2202.00310, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    12. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2011. "One-Sided Representations of Generalized Dynamic Factor Models," EIEF Working Papers Series 1106, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Mar 2011.
    13. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    15. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-216, March.
    16. Bai, Jushan & Liao, Yuan, 2017. "Inferences in panel data with interactive effects using large covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 59-78.
    17. Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014. "No News in Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
    18. Marc Hallin & Roman Liska, 2008. "Dynamic Factors in the Presence of Block Structure," Working Papers ECARES 2008_012, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    19. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    20. Konopczak, Karolina & Konopczak, Michał, 2017. "Impact of International capital flows on emerging markets’ sovereign risk premium – demand vs. vulnerability effect," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 239-245.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.