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The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows: Evidence from Asia

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  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra
  • Ms. Filiz D Unsal

Abstract

The effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in open economies could be impaired if interest rates are driven primarily by global factors, especially during periods of large capital inflows. The main objective of this paper is to assess whether this is true for emerging Asia’s economies. Using a dynamic factor model and a structural vector auto-regression model, we show that long-term interest rates in Asia are indeed predominantly driven by global factors. However, monetary policy transmission mechanism remains effective in the region, as it operates predominantly through short-term interest rates. Nevertheless, the monetary transmission mechanism, though effective, is somewhat weaker in Asia during the periods of surges in capital inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sonali Jain-Chandra & Ms. Filiz D Unsal, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Under Capital Inflows: Evidence from Asia," IMF Working Papers 2012/265, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/265
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    2. Zhaosu MENG & Wei WEI & Xiaotong LIU & Kedong YIN, 2018. "The Influence of International Capital Flow on the Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 21-40, December.
    3. Hamza, Hichem & Saadaoui, Zied, 2018. "Monetary transmission through the debt financing channel of Islamic banks: Does PSIA play a role?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 557-570.
    4. Petrovska Magdalena & Tonovska Jasna & Nikolov Miso & Sulejmani Artan, 2022. "Evaluating Monetary Policy Effectiveness in North Macedonia: Evidence from a Bayesian Favar Framework," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 67-82, December.
    5. Mansur, Alfan & Syaifullah, Syaifullah, 2016. "Membangun Kredibilitas Kebijakan Moneter Melalui Suku Bunga Acuan Baru [Improving Credibility of Monetary Policy through A New Policy Rate]," MPRA Paper 93938, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    6. Hillary Chijindu Ezeaku & Imo Godwin Ibe & Uche Boniface Ugwuanyi & N. J. Modebe & Emmanuel Kalu Agbaeze, 2018. "Monetary Policy Transmission and Industrial Sector Growth: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(2), pages 21582440187, April.
    7. Tafajul Hossain & Biswajit Maitra, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in India Under Monetary-targeting and Multiple-indicator Approach Regimes," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 19(1), pages 108-124, June.
    8. Delano S. Villanueva, 2015. "Challenges for Inflation Targeting," Working Papers wp10, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    9. Lange, Ronald H., 2014. "The small open macroeconomy and the yield curve: A state-space representation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-21.
    10. Cham, Yaya, 2023. "Financial Globalization and Bank Lending: The Limits of Domestic Monetary Policy in The Gambia," MPRA Paper 117026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," IMF Working Papers 2015/207, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," PIER Discussion Papers 7, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Jarko Fidrmuc & Svatopluk Kapounek, 2020. "The Risks and Financial Vulnerability of Foreign Bank Ownership in CEECs: Evidence from Exchange Rate Depreciation after the Financial Crisis," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(1), pages 34-48, January.
    14. David Gabauer & Sowmya Subramaniam & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "On the transmission mechanism of Asia‐Pacific yield curve characteristics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 473-488, January.
    15. Nasha Ananchotikul & Dulani Seneviratne, 2015. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Asia: The Role of Banks and the Effects of Financial Globalization," PIER Discussion Papers 7., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Nov 2015.
    16. Marouane Daoui, 2023. "Econometric assessment of the monetary policy shocks in Morocco: Evidence from a Bayesian Factor-Augmented VAR," Papers 2302.14114, arXiv.org.
    17. Apanisile, Tolulope Olumuyiwa & Akinlo, Anthony Enisan, 2022. "Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in an Implicit Inflation Targeting Regime: The Case of Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(4), September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; interest rate; yield; interest rate channel; Monetary policy transmission; capital flows; dynamic factor model; structural VAR; long-term interest rates; policy rate; risk aversion; interest rate transmission mechanism; Long term interest rates; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Short term interest rates; Capital inflows; Global; Asia and Pacific;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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