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Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets

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Abstract

We study a Large-Dimensional Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model where (1) the factors Ft are I (1) and singular, that is Ft has dimension r and is driven by q dynamic shocks with q less than r, (2) the idiosyncratic components are either I (0) or I (1). Under these assumption the factors Ft are cointegrated and modeled by a singular Error Correction Model. We provide conditions for consistent estimation, as both the cross-sectional size n, and the time dimension T, go to infinity, of the factors, the loadings, the shocks, the ECM coefficients and therefore the Impulse Response Functions. Finally, the numerical properties of our estimator are explored by means of a MonteCarlo exercise and of a real-data application, in which we study the effects of monetary policy and supply shocks on the US economy.

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  • Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2016. "Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-24
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2016.024r1
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    4. Francisco Corona & Graciela González-Farías & Pedro Orraca, 2017. "A dynamic factor model for the Mexican economy: are common trends useful when predicting economic activity?," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 26(1), pages 1-35, December.
    5. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2021. "Investment and uncertainty: Are large firms different from small ones?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 302-317.
    8. Hsiang-Hsi Liu & Chien-Kuo Tseng, 2022. "Common Components in Co-integrated System and Its Estimation and Application: Evidence from Five Stock Markets in Asia-Pacific Chinese Region," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 101-121.
    9. Di Iorio, Francesca & Fachin, Stefano, 2021. "Evaluating restricted common factor models for non-stationary data," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 64-75.
    10. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Monti, Francesca & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Nowcasting with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 500-519.
    11. Maxime Leroux & Rachidi Kotchoni & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2017. "Forecasting economic activity in data-rich environment," EconomiX Working Papers 2017-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Francisco Corona & Pilar Poncela & Esther Ruiz, 2020. "Estimating Non-stationary Common Factors: Implications for Risk Sharing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 37-60, January.
    13. Martina Hengge & Seton Leonard, 2017. "Factor Models for Non-Stationary Series: Estimates of Monthly U.S. GDP," IHEID Working Papers 13-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Smeekes, Stephan & Wijler, Etienne, 2018. "Macroeconomic forecasting using penalized regression methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 408-430.
    15. Ergemen, Yunus Emre, 2023. "Parametric estimation of long memory in factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1483-1499.
    16. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Lippi & Matteo Luciani, 2014. "Dynamic Factor Models, Cointegration and Error Correction Mechanisms," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-14, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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    Keywords

    Dynamic Factor models; Cointegration; Common trends; Impulse response functions; Unit root processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C00 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - General
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General

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