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A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises

Author

Listed:
  • van den Berg, Jeroen
  • Candelon, Bertrand
  • Urbain, Jean-Pierre

Abstract

Panel data framework has often been used to build Early Warning Systems for financial crises. This paper questions the implicit assumption that crises are homogenously caused by identical factors. It suggests a preliminary step aiming at forming optimal country clusters.

Suggested Citation

  • van den Berg, Jeroen & Candelon, Bertrand & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2008. "A cautious note on the use of panel models to predict financial crises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 80-83, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:101:y:2008:i:1:p:80-83
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Predicting emerging market currency crashes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
    5. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    6. Evrensel, Ayse Y. & Kutan, Ali M., 2006. "Creditor moral hazard in stock markets: Empirical evidence from Indonesia and Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 640-654, June.
    7. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    8. Miguel A. Kiguel & Nissan Liviatan, 1995. "Stopping Three Big Inflations: Argentina, Brazil, and Peru," NBER Chapters,in: Reform, Recovery, and Growth: Latin America and the Middle East, pages 369-414 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    10. Anja Shortland, 2004. "The Role of Politics and Institutions in LDC Currency Devaluations," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/30, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    11. George Kapetanios, 2003. "Determining the Poolability of Individual Series in Panel Datasets," Working Papers 499, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits; An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    F37 C33;

    JEL classification:

    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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