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Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries

Author

Listed:
  • Lestano

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Jan Jacobs

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Gerard H. Kuper

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

Abstract

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literature—external, financial, domestic (real and public), and global indicators—that are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the indicator groups is tested in a multivariate logit model on a panel of six Asian countries for the period 1970:01-2001:12. An additional feature is that we examine four different currency crisis dating definitions. A within-sample signal extraction experiment reveals that some currency crises dating schemes outperform others.

Suggested Citation

  • Lestano & Jan Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2004. "Indicators of financial crises do work! An early-warning system for six Asian countries," International Finance 0409004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0409004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crises; currency crises; banking crises; debt crises; early warning system; panel data; multivariate logit; factor analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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