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A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries

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  • Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou

    (Yale University)

Abstract

In this paper I develop models of the incidence and extent of external financing crises of developing countries, which lead to multiperiod multinomial discrete choice and discrete/continuous econometric specifications with flexible correlation structures in the unobservables. I show that estimation of these models based on simulation methods has attractive statistical properties and is computationally tractable. Three such simulation estimation methods are exposited, analyzed theoretically, and used in practice: a method of smoothly simulation maximum likelihood (SSML) based on a smooth recursive conditioning simulator (SRC), a method of simulated scores (MSS) based on a Gibbs sampling simulator (GSS), and an MSS estimator based on the SRC simulator. The data set used in this study comprises 93 developing countries observed through the 1970-1988 period and contains information on external financing responses that are not available to investigators in the past. Moreover, previous studies of external debt problems had to rely on restrictive correlation structures in the unobservables to overcome otherwise intractable computational difficulties. The findings show that being able for the first time to allow for flexible correlation patterns in the unobservables through estimation by simulation has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates obtained from such models. This suggests that past empirical results in this literature require a substantial reevaluation.
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Suggested Citation

  • Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1993. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Working Papers _022, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:yaluwp:_022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
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    6. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1986. "Temporal Dependence in Limited Dependent Variable Models: Theoretical and Monte-Carlo Results," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
    8. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-390, March.
    9. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis Argyrou, 1986. "Two misspecification tests for the simple switching regressions disequilibrium model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 343-348.
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    11. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1998. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 863-896, July.
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    22. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel McFadden & Paul A. Ruud, 1994. "Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities: Theoretical and Computational Results," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1021R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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