A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries
In this paper I develop models of the incidence and extent of external financing crises of developing countries, which lead to multiperiod multinomial discrete choice and discrete/continuous econometric specifications with flexible correlation structures in the unobservables. I show that estimation of these models based on simulation methods has attractive statistical properties and is computationally tractable. Three such simulation estimation methods are exposited, analyzed theoretically, and used in practice: a method of smoothly simulation maximum likelihood (SSML) based on a smooth recursive conditioning simulator (SRC), a method of simulated scores (MSS) based on a Gibbs sampling simulator (GSS), and an MSS estimator based on the SRC simulator. The data set used in this study comprises 93 developing countries observed through the 1970-1988 period and contains information on external financing responses that are not available to investigators in the past. Moreover, previous studies of external debt problems had to rely on restrictive correlation structures in the unobservables to overcome otherwise intractable computational difficulties. The findings show that being able for the first time to allow for flexible correlation patterns in the unobservables through estimation by simulation has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates obtained from such models. This suggests that past empirical results in this literature require a substantial reevaluation.
|Date of creation:||Sep 1993|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1994), 9: 109-131|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 651-669, December.
- Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1993.
"The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models,"
_023, Yale University.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel L. McFadden, 1998. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(4), pages 863-896, July.
- V A Hajivassiliou & DL McFadden, 1997. "The Method of Simulated Scores for the Estimation of LDV Models," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 328, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March.
- Paul A. Ruud., 1988.
"Extensions of Estimation Methods Using the EM Algorithm.,"
Economics Working Papers
8899, University of California at Berkeley.
- Ruud, Paul A., 1991. "Extensions of estimation methods using the EM algorithm," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 305-341, September.
- Keane, Michael P, 1994. "A Computationally Practical Simulation Estimator for Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 95-116, January.
- McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
- Sule Ozler & Harry Huizinga, 1992. "Bank Exposure, Capital and Secondary Market Discounts on the Developing Country Debt," NBER Working Papers 3961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1986. "Temporal Dependence in Limited Dependent Variable Models: Theoretical and Monte-Carlo Results," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- repec:cep:stiecm:/1997/328 is not listed on IDEAS
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1986.
"Two Misspecification Tests for the Simple Switching Regressions Disequilibrium Model,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
792, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis Argyrou, 1986. "Two misspecification tests for the simple switching regressions disequilibrium model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 343-348.
- Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
- White, Halbert & Domowitz, Ian, 1984. "Nonlinear Regression with Dependent Observations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(1), pages 143-61, January.
- Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
- Ken Binmore & M.J. Herrero, 1984. "Frictionless Non-Walrasian Markets (Now published as 2 papers (see also TE/85/117): Security Equilibrium, in Review of Economic Studies, 55 (1988), pp.33-48; and Matching and Bargaining in Dynamic Mar," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series 103, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou & Daniel McFadden & Paul A. Ruud, 1994. "Simulation of Multivariate Normal Rectangle Probabilities: Theoretical and Computational Results," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1021R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1980. "LDC participation in international financial markets : Debt and reserves," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-21, February.
- Shaked, Avner & Sutton, John, 1984. "Involuntary Unemployment as a Perfect Equilibrium in a Bargaining Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(6), pages 1351-64, November.
- Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A., 1987. "The external debt repayments problems of LDC's : An econometric model based on panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-2), pages 205-230.
- Hajivassiliou, V. A., 1989.
"Do the secondary markets believe in life after debt?,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
252, The World Bank.
- Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-64, May.
- Stern, Steven, 1992. "A Method for Smoothing Simulated Moments of Discrete Probabilities in Multinomial Probit Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 943-52, July.
- Eggink, E & Hop, J P & van Praag, Bernard M S, 1994. "A Symmetric Approach to the Labour Market with the Household as the Unit of Observation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 133-61, April-Jun.
- Manski, Charles F, 1987. "Semiparametric Analysis of Random Effects Linear Models from Binary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 357-62, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1057. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.