IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/intecj/v18y2001i4p427-448.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness

Author

Listed:
  • David McKenzie

Abstract

This paper finds that one can econometrically ascertain the determinants of default to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) through panel logit analysis. Creditworthiness is found to be determined by political and external factors in addition to economic variables. Default to the IBRD is seen to fall into a graduated hierarchy of default, whereby default occurs first to Paris Club and Commercial Bank creditors, with subsequent default to the IBRD being triggered by a high proportion of IBRD and short-term debt in the portfolio and other economic and political factors.

Suggested Citation

  • David McKenzie, 2001. "An Econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 427-448.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:18:y:2001:i:4:p:427-448
    DOI: 10.1080/1016873042000299927
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1016873042000299927
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1016873042000299927?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
    2. Hajivassiliou, V A, 1994. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 109-131, April-Jun.
    3. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Suk Hun Lee, 1993. "Relative Importance of Political Instability and Economic Variables on Perceived Country Creditworthiness," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 801-812, December.
    5. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
    6. Dhrymes, Phoebus J., 1986. "Limited dependent variables," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1567-1631, Elsevier.
    7. Brewer, Thomas L & Rivoli, Pietra, 1990. "Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 357-369, August.
    8. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    9. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 651-669, December.
    10. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Reiss, Daniel G, 2010. "Concessão de crédito entre bancos centrais no âmbito do Convênio de Pagamentos e Créditos Recíprocos [Credit concession among central banks within the Agreement on Reciprocal Payments and Credits]," MPRA Paper 41322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the loan concentration risk in Latin America," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-384, October.
    2. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Hajivassiliou, V A, 1994. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 109-131, April-Jun.
    4. Jelena Laušev & Aleksandar Stojanović & Nataša Todorović, 2011. "Determinants Of Debt Rescheduling In Eastern European Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(188), pages 7-31, January –.
    5. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    6. Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2014. "The determinants of sovereign default: A sensitivity analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 300-318.
    7. Nath, Hiranya K., 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    8. Hashmi, Rimsha Karim & Qayyum, Abdul, 2016. "Estimating the Long-Run Creditworthiness of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70529, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Islam, Roumeen & Montenegro, Claudio E., 2002. "What determines the quality of institutions?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2764, The World Bank.
    10. Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, 2016. "External debt accumulation in sub-Saharan African countries: how fast is safe?," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(2), pages 93-110.
    11. Zeaiter, Hussein & El-Khalil, Raed, 2016. "Extreme bounds of sovereign defaults: Evidence from the MENA region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 391-410.
    12. Zeaiter, Hussein Zeaiter, 2013. "Sovereign Debt Defaults: Evidence using Extreme bounds Analysis," Working Papers 32/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).
    13. Lora, Eduardo & Cortés, Patricia & Herrera, Ana María, 2001. "Los obstáculos al desarrollo empresarial y el tamaño de las firmas en América Latina," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2144, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Amavilah, Voxi & Asongu, Simplice A. & Andrés, Antonio R., 2017. "Effects of globalization on peace and stability: Implications for governance and the knowledge economy of African countries," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 91-103.
    15. Hellman, Joel S. & Jones, Geraint & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2003. "Seize the state, seize the day: state capture and influence in transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 751-773, December.
    16. Helliwell, John F., 2003. "How's life? Combining individual and national variables to explain subjective well-being," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 331-360, March.
    17. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 2003. "Tropics, germs, and crops: how endowments influence economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 3-39, January.
    18. Braam, Geert & Nandy, Monomita & Weitzel, Utz & Lodh, Suman, 2015. "Accrual-based and real earnings management and political connections," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 111-141.
    19. Alberto Alesina & Alexander F. Wagner, 2006. "Choosing (and Reneging on) Exchange Rate Regimes," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(4), pages 770-799, June.
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1993_001 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Welsch, Heinz, 2004. "Corruption, growth, and the environment: a cross-country analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(5), pages 663-693, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; creditworthiness; international lenders; JEL Classification: F34; G15; G29;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:intecj:v:18:y:2001:i:4:p:427-448. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RIEJ20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.