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An econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness

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  • McKenzie, David

Abstract

The author econometrically ascertains the determinants of default to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) through panel logit analysis. Creditworthiness with a lag of one period is determined by the extent of arrears to private creditors, the proportion of total debt service that is being paid, the government budget deficit, the extent of military involvement in the government of a country, and by the G7's current account balance. Default to the IBRD falls into a graduated hierarchy, whereby default occurs first to Paris Club and commercial bank creditors, with subsequent default triggered by portfolios with high proportions of IBRD and short-term debt, as well as the factors mentioned above. Default to these other creditor groups can be explained by more traditional country risk variables, although Mckenzie's analysis highlights the importance of political and external factors in explaining default to all creditors studied. He finds sovereign default to be a state-dependent process, whereby the repayment behavior of a country changes once it enters into default. Operationally, the author arrives at a model that can be used to assess short-term creditworthiness, although data imperfections and availability still limit the usefulness of the model for some countries. Longer-term risk assessment proves more difficult, which raises operational questions for the IBRD.

Suggested Citation

  • McKenzie, David, 2002. "An econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2822, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2822
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Governance matters," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2196, The World Bank.
    2. Hajivassiliou, V A, 1994. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 109-131, April-Jun.
    3. Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 1989. "Do the Secondary Markets Believe in Life After Debt?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 911, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Suk Hun Lee, 1993. "Relative Importance of Political Instability and Economic Variables on Perceived Country Creditworthiness," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 24(4), pages 801-812, December.
    5. Dhrymes, Phoebus J., 1986. "Limited dependent variables," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 27, pages 1567-1631 Elsevier.
    6. Brewer, Thomas L & Rivoli, Pietra, 1990. "Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 357-369, August.
    7. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    8. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 651-669, December.
    9. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Zoido-Lobaton, Pablo, 1999. "Aggregating governance indicators," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2195, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gelos, R. Gaston & Sahay, Ratna & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Sovereign borrowing by developing countries: What determines market access?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 243-254, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Strategic Debt Management; Strategic Debt Management; Economic Theory&Research; Environmental Economics&Policies; Financial Intermediation; Banks&Banking Reform;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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