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Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach


  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Gerard H. Kuper

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)

  • Lestano

    (Department of Economics University of Groningen)


Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system (EWS) for six countries in Asia in which indicators do work. Our binary choice model, which has been estimated for the period 1970:01–2001.12, has the following features. We compare four different currency crisis definitions, extract a full list of currency crisis indicators from the literature, apply factor analysis to combine the indicators, and introduce dynamics. We find that money growth (M1 and M2), national savings, and import growth correlate with currency crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0409005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard H., 2003. "Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries," CCSO Working Papers 200313, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. repec:dgr:rugccs:200313 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 21-42, Fall.
    6. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    7. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    8. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
    9. Bustelo, Pablo, 2000. "Novelties of financial crises in the 1990s and the search for new indicators," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 229-251, November.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    11. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
    12. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, Winter.
    2. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2007. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 59-84, April.
    3. Leo de Haan & Jan Willem van den End, 2016. "The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing," DNB Working Papers 516, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market," Discussion Paper Series 2006_24, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
    5. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2011. "Early Warning Indicators for Asset Price Booms," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 1-19, June.
    6. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    7. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    8. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    9. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines, 2004. "Successful and Unsuccessful Attacks: Evaluating the Stability of the East Asian Currencies," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2004-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    10. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    11. Mete Feridun, 2007. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation on Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2007_01, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jan 2007.
    12. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises: Are They the Same in Different Exchange Rate Regimes?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 937-957, November.
    13. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2011. "Why didn't the Global Financial Crisis hit Latin America?," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-63, CIRANO.

    More about this item


    financial crises; currency crises; early warning system; panel data; multivariate logit; factor analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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