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The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America

Author

Listed:
  • Boonman, Tjeerd M.
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.
  • Kuper, Gerard H.

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) has aected many regions including Latin America. This paper focuses on currency crises in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. We estimate an Early Warning System, consisting of a dynamic factor model and an ordered logit model, with monthly data for 1990-2007. Ex ante forecasts for 2008-2009 do not produce currency crises in the fall of 2008, in sharp contrast with reality. Our model only predicts an increased probability of a currency crisis for Argentina in 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:12005-eef
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11370/974099eb-33ee-4202-818e-8bb1d36bf97a
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2014. "External Vulnerabilities And Economic Integration: Is The Union Of South American Nations A Promising Project?," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 39(2), pages 97-131, June.
    2. Jing, Zhongbo, 2015. "On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 267-291.

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