IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/gat/wpaper/1238.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

External vulnerabilities and economic integration. Is the Union of South American Nations a promising project?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Bonilla Bolanos

    () (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France)

Abstract

This article addresses the reactions of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) economies to external shocks. Because it was conceived as a political alliance, the UNASUR is likely to be a promising integration project. Thus, assessing the union from an economic perspective is essential. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, this study assesses the external monetary, commercial and -financial vulnerability of the bloc members, together with their preferences for stabilization tools (monetary or fi-scal instruments) and the level of convergence. The results reveal mutual weaknesses to overcome and a considerable synchronization level within the UNASUR. Evidence of positive integration prospects is found.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Bonilla Bolanos, 2012. "External vulnerabilities and economic integration. Is the Union of South American Nations a promising project?," Working Papers 1238, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1238
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.gate.cnrs.fr/RePEc/2012/1238.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    2. Otmar, Issing, 2011. "The crisis of European Monetary Union â Lessons to be drawn," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 737-749, September.
    3. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    4. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876.
    5. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    6. Céline Gimet, 2007. "Le projet d'Union Monétaire dans le Mercosur :Etude de la position actuelle dans les pays par rapport à une carte de critères de soutenabilité," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 50(2), pages 249-273.
    7. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Égert, Balázs, 2010. "The effect of foreign shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 461-477, July.
    8. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    9. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    10. Lee, Grace H.Y. & Koh, Sharon G.M., 2012. "The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 96-102.
    11. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bruneau, Catherine & De Bandt, Olivier, 2003. "Monetary and fiscal policy in the transition to EMU: what do SVAR models tell us?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 959-985, September.
    13. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten & Koopmann, Georg, 2006. "Between two poles: A dual currency board for Mercosur," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-362, December.
    14. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2010. "A Concise History of Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2010-01, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    15. Devereux, Michael B., 2004. "Monetary policy rules and exchange rate flexibility in a simple dynamic general equilibrium model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 287-308, June.
    16. Céline Gimet, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: the importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Post-Print halshs-00356066, HAL.
    17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    18. Sims, Christopher A & Uhlig, Harald, 1991. "Understanding Unit Rooters: A Helicopter Tour," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1591-1599, November.
    19. Andrade, Joaquim Pinto de & Silva, Maria Luiza Falcao & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2005. "Disintegrating effects of monetary policies in the MERCOSUR," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-89, March.
    20. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2012. "Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1241-1260.
    21. Edwards, Sebastian, 2007. "Capital controls, capital flow contractions, and macroeconomic vulnerability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 814-840, September.
    22. Camarero, Mariam & Flores, Renato Jr. & Tamarit, Cecilio R., 2006. "Monetary union and productivity differences in Mercosur countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 53-66, January.
    23. de Mello, Luiz & Moccero, Diego, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in Latin America: The cases of Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 229-245, February.
    24. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    25. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    26. Rose, Andrew K & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Currency Unions and International Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 1067-1089, November.
    27. Hiroya Akiba & Yukihiro Iida, 2009. "Monetary Unions and Endogeneity of the OCA Criteria," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 101-116.
    28. Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2007. "Capital Flows and Controls in Brazil: What Have We Learned?," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 349-420 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Gimet, Celine, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: The importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 317-335, October.
    30. José Antonio Ocampo, 2009. "Latin America and the global financial crisis," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 703-724, July.
    31. Makin, Anthony J., 2013. "Commodity prices and the macroeconomy: An extended dependent economy approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 80-88.
    32. Jordi Galí, 1992. "How Well Does The IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U. S. Data?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-738.
    33. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    34. André Sapir, 2011. "European Integration at the Crossroads: A Review Essay on the 50th Anniversary of Bela Balassa's Theory of Economic Integration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1200-1229, December.
    35. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodriguez & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero & Balazs Egert, 2010. "The VARying Effect of Foreign Shocks in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 3080, CESifo Group Munich.
    36. Barbara Kotschwar & Theodore H. Moran & Julia Muir, 2012. "Chinese Investment in Latin American Resources: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," Working Paper Series WP12-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    37. Molina-Domene, María A. & Pietrobelli, Carlo, 2012. "Drivers of technological capabilities in developing countries: An econometric analysis of Argentina, Brazil and Chile," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 504-515.
    38. Liu, Te-Ru & Gerlow, Mary E. & Irwin, Scott H., 1994. "The performance of alternative VAR models in forecasting exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 419-433, November.
    39. Eichengreen, Barry, 2012. "Implications of the Euro's crisis for international monetary reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 541-548.
    40. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    41. Moura, Marcelo L. & de Carvalho, Alexandre, 2010. "What can Taylor rules say about monetary policy in Latin America?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 392-404, March.
    42. Costain, James & de Blas, Beatriz, 2012. "The role of fiscal delegation in a monetary union: a survey of the political economy issues," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/11, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
    43. Nishigaki, Hideki, 2009. "How will the related variables change if global imbalances unwind?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 206-212, January.
    44. Alejandro Jara & Ramon Moreno & Camilo E Tovar, 2009. "The global crisis and Latin America: financial impact and policy responses," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    45. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. Giorgio Brosio & Ehtisham Ahmad, 2008. "Political Economy of Multi-Level Tax Assignments in Latin American Countries; Earmarked Revenue Versus Tax Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 08/71, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Leandro Medina, 2010. "The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 10/192, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    49. Larrain, Borja, 2011. "World betas, consumption growth, and financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 999-1018, October.
    50. Evers, Michael P., 2012. "Federal fiscal transfer rules in monetary unions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 507-525.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:17:d:61294 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jingxiao Zhang & Haiyan Xie & Klaus Schmidt & Hui Li, 2015. "A New Systematic Approach to Vulnerability Assessment of Innovation Capability of Construction Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time stability; Risk Preferences; Personality Theory; Experimental economics;

    JEL classification:

    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1238. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Nelly Wirth). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/gateefr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.