Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets
Emerging market stock returns have been characterized as having higher volatility than returns in the more developed markets. But previous studies give little attention to the fundamentals driving the reported levels of volatility. This paper investigates whether dynamics in key macroeconomic indicators like exchange rates, interest rates, industrial production and money supply in four Latin American countries significantly explain market returns. The MSCI world index and the U.S. 3-month T-bill yield are also included to proxy the effects of global variables. Using a six-variable vector autoregressive (VAR) model, the study finds that the global factors are consistently significant in explaining returns in all the markets. The country variables are found to impact the markets at varying significance and magnitudes. These findings may have important implications for decision-making by investors and national policymakers.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent J., 2001. "Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 401-426, August.
- Pagan, Jose A. & Soydemir, Gokce A., 2001. "Response asymmetries in the Latin American equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 175-185.
- Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989.
" The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-325, June.
- Alberto Giovannini & Philippe Jorion, 1988. "The Time-Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Mandelker, Gershon & Tandon, Kishore, 1985. "Common stock returns, real activity, money, and inflation: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 267-286, June.
- French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
- Bekaert, G. & Harvey, C. R. & Lumsdaine, R. L., 2002.
"The dynamics of emerging market equity flows,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 295-350, June.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K., 1997. "What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 821-836, December.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Elyasiani, Elyas & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1992. "The sensitivity of bank stock returns to market, interest and exchange rate risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 983-1004, September.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997.
"Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. " The World Price of Covariance Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 111-157, March.
- Ricardo J. Caballero, 2000. "Macroeconomic Volatility in Latin America: A Conceptual Framework and Three Case Studies," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Fall 2000), pages 31-107, August.
- Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1995.
"Emerging Equity Market Volatility,"
NBER Working Papers
5307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Karolyi, G. Andrew, 2002. "Did the Asian financial crisis scare foreign investors out of Japan?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 411-442, September.
- Brian J. Aitken, 1996. "Have Institutional Investors Destabilized Emerging Markets?," IMF Working Papers 96/34, International Monetary Fund.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:396-410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.