IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/aolpei/131359.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kuwornu, John K.M.

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the Ghanaian stock market returns using monthly data over period January 1992 to December, 2008. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are consumer price index (as a proxy for inflation), crude oil price, exchange rate and 91 day Treasury bill rate (as a proxy for interest rate). The study employs the Johansen Multivariate Co-integration Procedure. The empirical results reveal that there is co-integration between the four macroeconomic variables and stock returns in Ghana indicating long run equilibrium relationship. Further, the results reveal that; in the short run, Treasury Bill Rate significantly influences the stock returns, with and an elasticity of 0.005, implying that a 1% rise in the Treasury bill rate will lead to a 0.005% rise in the stock returns. The inflation rate is also significant at 1% with elasticity -0.135744, implying that a 1% increase in inflation rate will decrease stock returns by 0.14 %. The residual value of 0.785548 of the Error Correction Model indicates that about 79% of the deviations of the stock returns are corrected in the short run, which is quite high and encouraging for an emerging market like the Ghana Stock Exchange. In the long run, however, the stock returns are significantly influenced by Inflation rate, Crude oil prices, Exchange rate, and Treasury bill rate, with elasticities of 0.5479, -0.03021, 0.05213, and 0.00322 respectively. Crude oil price is negatively related to stock returns; 1% rise in Crude oil prices will decrease returns by 0.03%. Also a 1% increase in inflation rate increases stock returns by 0.54%; and a 1% rise in exchange rate increases stock returns by 0.052%. The effect of Treasury bill rate is highly inelastic with elasticity of 0.003. In both the short run and the long run results, inflation rate appears to be the most influential macroeconomic variable affecting stock market returns in Ghana. The results also reveal that investors are not compensated for inflationary increases in the short run, but are compensated in the long run. These results have implications for financial analysts, fund managers and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuwornu, John K.M., 2012. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(2), pages 1-12, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:131359
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.131359
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/131359/files/agris_on-line_2012_2_kuwornu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.131359?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fifield, S G M & Power, D M & Sinclair, C D, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors and Share Returns: An Analysis Using Emerging Market Data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 51-62, January.
    2. Hassan, Gazi & Hisham, Al refai, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Factors Explain Equity Returns in the Long Run? The Case of Jordan," MPRA Paper 22713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1988. "Economic Forces in the London Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    4. Hosseini, Seyed Mehdi & Ahmad, Zamri & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India," MPRA Paper 112215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Hallam, David & Zanoli, Raffaele, 1993. "Error Correction Models and Agricultural Supply Response," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 151-166.
    6. Adam, Anokye M. & Tweneboah, George, 2008. "Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 11256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    8. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2002. "The relation between asset returns and inflation at short and long horizons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 101-118, April.
    9. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    10. Gavin Peebles & Peter Wilson, 1996. "The Singapore Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 871.
    11. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    12. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    13. Solnik, Bruno, 1987. "Using Financial Prices to Test Exchange Rate Models: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 141-149, March.
    14. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    15. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent J., 2001. "Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 401-426, August.
    16. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    17. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Subadar Agathee Ushad & Sooraj Fowdar & Sannassee Raja Vinesh & Moushumi Jowaheer, 2008. "Return Distributions: Evidence from Emerging African Stock Exchanges," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 41-52, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Umar Ahmad & Adam Abdullah & Zunaidah Sulong & Ahmad Tijjani Abdullahi, 2015. "The Review of Stock Returns and Macroeconomic Variables," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(5), pages 154-181, May.
    2. Muhammad Kamran Khan & Jian-Zhou Teng & Javed Pervaiz & Sunil Kumar Chaudhary, 2017. "Nexuses between Economic Factors and Stock Returns in China," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 182-191, September.
    3. Sri Utami Ady, 2021. "The Effect of World Oil Prices, Gold Prices, and Other Energy Prices on the Indonesian Mining Sector with Exchange Rate of Indonesian Rupiah as the Moderating Effect," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(5), pages 369-376.
    4. Neifar, Malika, 2023. "Macroeconomic Factors and UK Stock Market: Evidence through the Non-Linear ARDL model," MPRA Paper 116298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Joseph Emmanuel Tetteh & Anthony Amoah & Deodat Emilson Adenutsi, 2019. "Drivers of Stock Market Returns in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Selected Countries," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(3), pages 191-208, September.
    6. Mtero, Charles Tapedza & Runganga, Raynold, 2021. "Inflation and Stock Market Returns in Zimbabwe: Comparison Among the GARCH, EGARCH and TGARCH Models," MPRA Paper 112408, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Mar 2022.
    7. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    8. Richard Kofi Asravor & Prince Dieu‐Donne Fonu, 2021. "Dynamic relation between macroeconomic variable, stock market returns and stock market development in Ghana," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2637-2646, April.
    9. Emran Hasan & Shahanawaz Sharif, 2019. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Affect Stock Market Performance? A Case Study of DSEX and DS30 Index of Dhaka Stock Exchange," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 9(3), pages 182-203, September.
    10. Haruna Issahaku & Yazidu Uztarz & Paul Bata Domanban, 2013. "Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns in Ghana: Any Causal Link?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(8), pages 1044-1062, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2013. "A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 38-51, October.
    2. Pooja Joshi & A K Giri, 2015. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and Indian Stock Price: An Application of ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(10), pages 1119-1133, October.
    3. Camilleri, Silvio John & Scicluna, Nicolanne & Bai, Ye, 2019. "Do stock markets lead or lag macroeconomic variables? Evidence from select European countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 170-186.
    4. Gupta, Rakesh & Yuan, Tian & Roca, Eduardo, 2016. "Linkages between the ADR market and home country macroeconomic fundamentals: Evidence in the context of the BRICs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 230-239.
    5. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Hunjra, Ahmed Imran & Chani, Muhammad Irfan & Ijaz, Muhammad Shahzad & Farooq, Muhammad & Khan, Kamran, 2014. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 60791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ruqayya Aljifri, 2020. "The Macroeconomy, Oil and the Stock Market: A Multiple Equation Time Series Analysis of Saudi Arabia," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-27, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    8. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    10. Syed Kamran Ali Haider & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Ishtiaq Ahmed, 2017. "Systematic Risk Factors And Stock Return Volatility," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
    11. Ahmad Hamidi, Hakimah Nur & Khalid, Norlin & Abdul Karim, Zulkefly, 2018. "Revisiting Relationship Between Malaysian Stock Market Index and Selected Macroeconomic Variables Using Asymmetric Cointegration," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 52(1), pages 311-319.
    12. Khan, Mashrur Mustaque & Yousuf, Ahmed Sadek, 2013. "Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Prices:Evidence from the Bangladesh Stock Market," MPRA Paper 46528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Endang Mahpudin, 2020. "The Effect of Macroeconomics on Stock Price Index in the Republic of China," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 228-236.
    14. Pooja Joshi & A. K. Giri, 2015. "Cointegration and Causality between Macroeconomic variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Analysis from Indian Economy," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 327-345, December.
    15. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    16. Babita Panda & Ajaya Kumar Panda & Pradiptarathi Panda, 2023. "Macroeconomic Response to BRICS Countries Stock Markets Using Panel VAR," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(1), pages 259-272, March.
    17. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    18. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    19. Mirza Muhammad Naseer & Muhammad Asif Khan & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2021. "Firm, Industry and Macroeconomics Dynamics of Stock Returns: A Case of Pakistan Non-Financial Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, April.
    20. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aolpei:131359. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fevszcz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.