IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rss/jnljfm/v2i4p1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relationship between Indian Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Study

Author

Listed:
  • K. Latha
  • Sunita Gupta
  • Arnav Kumar

Abstract

Macroeconomic variables have long been hypothesised to significantly affect stock market performance. But no consensus for this relationship exists in case of developing markets. We examine the short and long run dynamic relationship between Indian Stock Index and Major Macroeconomic variables, viz. GDP, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, Money Supply and International Oil Prices. Financial econometric techniques comprising of ADF Unit Root test, Multiple Regression Analysis, Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration test and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model was used on quarterly data for 1995:Q1 – 2014:Q4.ADF unit root test results established that variables where I(1). Regression results revealed only GDP and Exchange rate where significant macroeconomic variables. Granger causality results indicate unidirectional causality from Indian Stock returns to GDP and Oil prices. In long run, there is bidirectional causality of Indian Stock Index with GDP, Money Supply and Oil Prices along with a unidirectional causality from Indian Stock Index to Exchange Rate. Indian Stock Index is cointegrated with Money Supply, GDP and Inflation. ARDL model evidenced a significant positive relation with contemporaneous GDP and significant negative relation with own lagged values; lagged values of interest rate and long run money supply. These results have pertinent implications for Policy Makers, Regulators, Investors, Academicians and Researchers. Policy makers and regulators can use the results to work out strategies to insulate and fortify Indian stock markets from sustained periods of high volatility stemming from fluctuations and unpredictability of macroeconomic variables. In the same vein, analysts can use macroeconomic variables particularly GDP and Exchange rate to predict future Indian stock performance in short run. Investors and stock market analysts can search for presence of exploitable arbitrage opportunities in Indian market to earn above normal returns by formulating long run investment strategies on the basis of GDP, Money Supply and Inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • K. Latha & Sunita Gupta & Arnav Kumar, 2016. "Relationship between Indian Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Variables: An Empirical Study," International Journal of Financial Markets, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 109-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfm:v2i4p1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rassweb.org/admin/pages/ResearchPapers/Paper%201_1495832621.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pramod Kumar, Naik & Puja, Padhi, 2012. "The impact of Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Prices revisited: An Evidence from Indian Data," MPRA Paper 38980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    3. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Vanita Tripathi & Ritika Seth, 2014. "Stock Market Performance and Macroeconomic Factors: The Study of Indian Equity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 291-316, June.
    6. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
    7. Syed Ali Raza, 2015. "Foreign direct investment, workers’ remittances and private saving in Pakistan: an ARDL bound testing approach," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 1216-1234, December.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    9. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    10. Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2017. "Dynamics of Military Expenditure and Income Inequality in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 1035-1055, April.
    11. Md. Samsul Alam & Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Qaisar Abbas, 2016. "Accounting for Contribution of Trade Openness and Foreign Direct Investment in Life Expectancy: The Long-Run and Short-Run Analysis in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1155-1170, December.
    12. Hisham Handal Abdelbaki, 2013. "Causality Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Development: Evidence from Bahrain," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(1), pages 69-84.
    13. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    14. Tarun K. Mukherjee & Atsuyuki Naka, 1995. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Variables And The Japanese Stock Market: An Application Of A Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, June.
    15. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    16. Asprem, Mads, 1989. "Stock prices, asset portfolios and macroeconomic variables in ten European countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 589-612, September.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    18. Mukherjee, Tarun K & Naka, Atsuyuki, 1995. "Dynamic Relations between Macroeconomic Variables and the Japanese Stock Market: An Application of a Vector Error Correction Model," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 223-237, Summer.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    20. Chang, Eric C. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 1989. "Seasonal Fluctuations in Industrial Production and Stock Market Seasonals," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 59-74, March.
    21. Chan, Kam C. & Norrbin, Stefan C. & Lai, Pikki, 1997. "Are stock and bond prices collinear in the long run?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-201.
    22. Maysami, Ramin Cooper & Koh, Tiong Sim, 2000. "A vector error correction model of the Singapore stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 79-96, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vietha Devia S.S., 2019. "The Correlation of Exchange Rate and Inflation and Its Effect on Stock Markets. Case Study on Consumer Good Index Indonesia: 2004 – 2017," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 32-44, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Onneetse L Sikalao-Lekobane, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Influence Domestic Stock Market Price Behaviour in Emerging Markets? A Johansen Cointegration Approach to the Botswana Stock Market," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 6(5), pages 363-372.
    2. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    3. Hosseini, Seyed Mehdi & Ahmad, Zamri & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Role of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market Index in China and India," MPRA Paper 112215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Fromentin, Vincent, 2022. "Time-varying causality between stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Connection or disconnection?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. P. K. Mishra & S. K. Mishra, 2022. "Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(2), pages 137-162, May.
    6. Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2011. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and net asset values (NAV) of equity funds: Cointegration evidence and vector error correction model of the Hong Kong Mandatory Provident Funds (MPFs)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 792-810.
    7. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    8. Abbas Ghulam & Wang Shouyang & Bhowmik Roni & Koju Laxmi, 2017. "Cointegration and Causality Relationship Between Stock Market, Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market in Pakistan," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, February.
    9. Mohammad Joarder & Monir Ahmed & Tahsina Haque & Syed Hasanuzzaman, 2014. "An empirical testing of informational efficiency in Bangladesh capital market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 63-87, February.
    10. Al-Sharkas, A.A., 2004. "Dynamic Relations Between Macroeconomic Factors and the Jordanian Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(1), pages 97-114.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2009. "Economic Forces and the Thai Stock Market, 1993-2007," MPRA Paper 57368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Alexander Schätz, 2010. "Macroeconomic Effects on Emerging Market Sector Indices," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 9(2), pages 131-169, August.
    13. Subrata ROY, 2020. "Foreign trade policy and economic growth: Indian evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 107-126, Autumn.
    14. Md. Abu HASAN, 2017. "Efficiency and Volatility of the Stock Market in Bangladesh: A Macroeconometric Analysis," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 239-249, June.
    15. Mohammed Nishat & Rozina Shaheen, 2004. "Macroeconomic Factors and Pakistani Equity Market," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 619-637.
    16. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    17. R. Gopinathan & S. Raja Sethu Durai, 2019. "Stock market and macroeconomic variables: new evidence from India," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
    18. Neha GUPTA & Arya KUMAR, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and market expectations: Indian Stock Market," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 161-178, Autumn.
    19. Sumit Kumar Maji & Arindam Laha & Debasish Sur, 2020. "Dynamic Nexuses between Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Stock Indices: Reflection from Indian Manufacturing Industry," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 45(3), pages 239-269, August.
    20. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rss:jnljfm:v2i4p1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Danish Khalil (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.rassweb.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.