OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis
This study revisits the OPEC cartel hypothesis using a case study. A test is conducted to see if Venezuela has its production Granger cause its OPEC quota or whether the OPEC quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. The results show both occur at different times. In the short run, OPEC's oil production quota for Venezuela Granger causes Venezuelan production. However, shortly after cuts, Venezuela cheats on agreements, suggesting a tit-for-tat oligopoly game, which is not anti-competitive. In the long run, we show that Venezuelan oil production Granger causes OPEC's quota for Venezuela, but not vice versa. Having Venezuelan oil production Granger cause OPEC quotas for Venezuela in the long run suggests OPEC does not coordinate outputs as much as it reacts to them. The evidence suggests Venezuela is not a part of an OPEC anti-competitive syndicate even though we show that Venezuelan oil production is low. An alternative explanation for why Venezuela and possibly other OPEC members have low oil production outputs is that institutions and risk aversion, not cartel participation, is the cause. A vector error correction model shows that there is no tendency for Venezuelan oil production to converge to OPEC's quota for Venezuela.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279.
- Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
- Robert K. Kaufmann, Stephane Dees, Pavlos Karadeloglou and Marcelo Sanchez, 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 67-90.
- Douglas B. Reynolds & Marek Kolodziej, 2009. "North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 269-306, May.
- J. B. Van Huyck & R. C. Battalio & R. O. Beil, 2010.
"Tacit coordination games, strategic uncertainty, and coordination failure,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
661465000000000393, David K. Levine.
- Van Huyck, John B & Battalio, Raymond C & Beil, Richard O, 1990. "Tacit Coordination Games, Strategic Uncertainty, and Coordination Failure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 234-48, March.
- John B Van Huyck & Raymond C Battalio & Richard O Beil, 1997. "Tacit coordination games, strategic uncertainty, and coordination failure," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1225, David K. Levine.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2007. "Institutions and the supply of oil: A case study of Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 939-949, February.
- Cutter J. Cleveland & Robert K. Kaufmann, 1991. "Forecasting Ultimate Oil Recovery and Its Rate of Production: Incorporating Economic Forces into the Models of M. King Hubbert," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-46.
- S. Gurcan Gulen, 1996.
"Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 43-57.
- Salih Gurcan Gulen, 1996. "Is OPEC a Cartel? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 318., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Loderer, Claudio, 1985. " A Test of the OPEC Cartel Hypothesis: 1974-1983," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 991-1006, July.
- David Jay Green, 1988. "The World Oil Market: An Examination Using Small-Scale Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-77.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "The Utility of Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60, pages 151.
- James L. Smith, 2003.
"Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis,"
0305, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 51-82.
- Adelman, Morris Albert, 1986. "Scarcity and World Oil Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 387-97, August.
- Carol Dahl & Mine Yucel, 1991. "Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 117-138.
- Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
- Geroski, Paul A & Ulph, Alistair M & Ulph, David T, 1987. "A Model of the Crude Oil Market in Which Market Conduct Varies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 77-86, Supplemen.
- Ramcharran, Harri, 2002. "Oil production responses to price changes: an empirical application of the competitive model to OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 97-106, March.
- A.F. Alhajji & David Huettner, 2000. "The Target Revenue Model and the World Oil Market: Empirical Evidence from 1971 to 1994," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 121-144.
- Adelman, M. A. & Shahi, Manoj, 1989. "Oil development-operating cost estimates, 1955-1985," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 2-10, January.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Clifton T. Jones, 1990. "OPEC Behaviour Under Falling Prices: Implications For Cartel Stability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 117-130.
- Antonio Spilimbergo, 1995.
"Testing the Hypothesis of Collusive Behavior Among OPEC Members,"
Research Department Publications
4016, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2001. "Testing the hypothesis of collusive behavior among OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 339-353, May.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Dibooglu, Sel & AlGudhea, Salim N., 2007. "All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: An examination of cheating and oil prices in OPEC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 292-310, September.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Charness, Gary B & Jackson, Matthew O., 2007.
"The Role of Responsibility in Strategic Risk-Taking,"
University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series
qt2mk4p42w, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Charness, Gary & Jackson, Matthew O., 2009. "The role of responsibility in strategic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 241-247, March.
- Ugo Bardi & Alessandro Lavacchi, 2009. "A Simple Interpretation of Hubbert’s Model of Resource Exploitation," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(3), pages 646-661, August.
- Gault, John & Spierer, Charles & Bertholet, Jean-Luc & Karbassioun, Bahman, 1999. "How does OPEC allocate quotas?," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 137-148.
- Adelman, M. A., 1986. "Oil producing countries' discount rates," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 309-329, December.
- Griffin, James M, 1985. "OPEC Behavior: A Test of Alternative Hypotheses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 954-63, December.
- Griffin, James M & Neilson, William S, 1994. "The 1985-86 Oil Price Collapse and Afterwards: What Does Game Theory Add?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 543-61, October.
- Moran, Theodore H., 1981. "Modeling OPEC behavior: economic and political alternatives," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 241-272, March.
- Pindyck, Robert S, 1978. "Gains to Producers from the Cartelization of Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 238-51, May.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee & Maitreesh Ghatak, 2005. "Symposium on Institutions and economic performance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(3), pages 421-425, 07.
- Ezzati, Ali, 1976. "Future OPEC price and production strategies as affected by its capacity to absorb oil revenues," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 107-138, August.
- Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:10:p:6045-6055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.