The World Oil Market: An Examination Using Small-Scale Models
One must assume that people in one's models do not know what is going to happen, and know that they do not know what is going to happen. --J. R. Hicks, quoted in P. Davidson (1981) This article presents the results of a series of exercises in the use of small-scale models to explain the spot price of crude oil. Small scale modeling-the use of a limited number of equations-involves a number of disadvantages: many interesting questions will have to be ignored and often a sense of realism may be sacrificed. However, small-scale models are an essential part of economic research. Compared to large, multi-equation models, small-scale models are often transparent-causal relations are clearly visible. In addition, small-scale models can often be easily updated and reexamined in the light of new information or assumptions. This is particularly important in policy-making when time and clear communication are at a premium.
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Volume (Year): Volume 9 (1988)
Issue (Month): Number 3 ()
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