IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Douglas B. Reynolds

    ()

    (Department of Economics, School of Management, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 756080, Fairbanks, AK 99775-6080; USA)

  • Marek Kolodziej

    ()

    (Center for Energy and Environmental Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    In this article, the U.S. and southern Canadian natural gas supply market is considered. An important model for oil and natural gas supply is the Hubbert curve. Not all regions of the world are producing oil or natural gas following a Hubbert curve, even when price and market conditions are accounted for. One reason is that institutions are affecting supply. We investigate the possible effects of oil and gas market institutions in North America on natural gas supply. A multi-cycle Hubbert curve with inflection points similar to the Soviet Union’s oil production multi-cycle Hubbert curve is used to determine North American natural gas discovery rates and to analyze how market specific institutions caused the inflection points. In addition, we analyze the latest shale natural gas projections critically. While currently, unconventional resources of natural gas suggest that North American natural gas production will increase without bound, the model here suggests a peak in North American natural gas supplies could happen in 2013.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/2/269/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/2/2/269/
    Download Restriction: no

    Article provided by MDPI, Open Access Journal in its journal Energies.

    Volume (Year): 2 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (May)
    Pages: 1-38

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:269-306:d:5072
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.mdpi.com/

    Keywords: energy supply; Hubbert curve; institutional economics; regulated industries; natural gas;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    • Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Russell S. Uhler, 1976. "Costs and Supply in Petroleum Exploration: The Case of Alberta," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 72-90, February.
    2. Norgaard, Richard B., 1990. "Economic indicators of resource scarcity: A critical essay," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 19-25, July.
    3. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    5. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
    6. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Forecasting ultimate resource recovery," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 543-555, December.
    7. Reynolds, Douglas B., 1999. "The mineral economy: how prices and costs can falsely signal decreasing scarcity," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 155-166, October.
    8. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    9. Robert K. Kaufmann & Cutler J. Cleveland, 2001. "Oil Production in the Lower 48 States: Economic, Geological, and Institutional Determinants," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 27-49.
    10. Brandt, Adam R., 2007. "Testing Hubbert," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 3074-3088, May.
    11. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2007. "Institutions and the supply of oil: A case study of Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 939-949, February.
    12. David F. Hendry & Katarina Juselius, 2001. "Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 75-120.
    13. Oliver E. Williamson, 2000. "The New Institutional Economics: Taking Stock, Looking Ahead," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(3), pages 595-613, September.
    14. Cutler J. Cleveland & Robert K. Kaufmann, 1997. "Natural Gas in the U.S.: How Far Can Technology Stretch the Resource Base?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 89-108.
    15. Ramsey, James B., 1980. "The economics of oil exploration : A probability-of-ruin approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 14-30, January.
    16. Bardi, Ugo, 2005. "The mineral economy: a model for the shape of oil production curves," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-61, January.
    17. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    18. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
    19. Lynch, Michael C., 2002. "Forecasting oil supply: theory and practice," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 373-389.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    as
    in new window


    Cited by:

    1. Waisman, Henri & Rozenberg, Julie & Sassi, Olivier & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium assessment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 744-753.
    2. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    3. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Pippenger, Michael K., 2010. "OPEC and Venezuelan oil production: Evidence against a cartel hypothesis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6045-6055, October.
    4. Reynolds, Douglas B. & Baek, Jungho, 2012. "Much ado about Hotelling: Beware the ides of Hubbert," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 162-170.
    5. Reynolds, Douglas B., 2014. "World oil production trend: Comparing Hubbert multi-cycle curves," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-71.
    6. Wang, Ting & Lin, Boqiang, 2014. "Impacts of unconventional gas development on China׳s natural gas production and import," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 546-554.

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Access and download statistics

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:2:y:2009:i:2:p:269-306:d:5072. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (XML Conversion Team)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.