IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v9y2017i5p833-d98793.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note on Medium- and Long-Term Global Energy Prospects and Scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Carlo Andrea Bollino

    (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Via A. Pascoli 20, 06125 Perugia, Italy)

  • Francesco Asdrubali

    (Department of Engineering, Roma TRE University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy)

  • Paolo Polinori

    (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Via A. Pascoli 20, 06125 Perugia, Italy)

  • Simona Bigerna

    (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Via A. Pascoli 20, 06125 Perugia, Italy)

  • Silvia Micheli

    (Department of Economics, University of Perugia, Via A. Pascoli 20, 06125 Perugia, Italy)

  • Claudia Guattari

    (Department of Engineering, Roma TRE University, Via Vito Volterra 62, 00146 Rome, Italy)

  • Antonella Rotili

    (Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia, Italy)

Abstract

The paper presents recent and future trends of the world energy market, as highlighted by medium- and long-term projections. Energy demand and energy consumptions projected by IEA (International Energy Agency) are examined, in comparison with projections provided by other international agencies and companies in the energy sector. In particular, energy resources, energy consumption and economic growth both in developing and developed countries are presented, with a particular attention to the role of energy efficiency, nuclear power, unconventional fossil resources and renewable energies. Sustainable development issues, according to the global climate agreement signed at COP21, are also presented. The outlook period extends up to 2040. The results confirm a worldwide interest in renewable and unconventional resources for the forthcoming decades, as well as efforts to increase the energy efficiency potential in all end-use sectors to reduce the overall environmental impact of energy production.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo Andrea Bollino & Francesco Asdrubali & Paolo Polinori & Simona Bigerna & Silvia Micheli & Claudia Guattari & Antonella Rotili, 2017. "A Note on Medium- and Long-Term Global Energy Prospects and Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(5), pages 1-25, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:833-:d:98793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/833/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/5/833/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ciarreta, Aitor & Espinosa, Maria Paz & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina, 2014. "Is green energy expensive? Empirical evidence from the Spanish electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 205-215.
    2. Wong, Siang Leng & Chang, Youngho & Chia, Wai-Mun, 2013. "Energy consumption, energy R&D and real GDP in OECD countries with and without oil reserves," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-60.
    3. Adams, F. Gerard & Shachmurove, Yochanan, 2008. "Modeling and forecasting energy consumption in China: Implications for Chinese energy demand and imports in 2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1263-1278, May.
    4. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    5. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Yu, Hsiao-Cheng & Yang, Yeou-Herng, 2011. "Modeling the CO2 emissions, energy use, and economic growth in Russia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5094-5100.
    6. Egbue, Ona & Long, Suzanna, 2012. "Barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles: An analysis of consumer attitudes and perceptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 717-729.
    7. Massimo Filippini & Lester C. Hunt, 2011. "Energy Demand and Energy Efficiency in the OECD Countries: A Stochastic Demand Frontier Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 59-80.
    8. Salamaliki, Paraskevi K. & Venetis, Ioannis A., 2013. "Energy consumption and real GDP in G-7: Multi-horizon causality testing in the presence of capital stock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 108-121.
    9. Lovering, Jessica R. & Yip, Arthur & Nordhaus, Ted, 2016. "Historical construction costs of global nuclear power reactors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 371-382.
    10. Micha Tomkiewicz, 2010. "On the Feasibility of a Timely Transition to a More Sustainable Energy Future," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(1), pages 1-11, January.
    11. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:-:d:63907 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Anslem Bawayelaazaa Nyuor & Emmanuel Donkor & Robert Aidoo & Samuel Saaka Buah & Jesse B. Naab & Stephen K. Nutsugah & Jules Bayala & Robert Zougmoré, 2016. "Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Cereal Production: Implications for Sustainable Agriculture in Northern Ghana," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Luca Evangelisti & Claudia Guattari & Paola Gori & Roberto De Lieto Vollaro, 2015. "In Situ Thermal Transmittance Measurements for Investigating Differences between Wall Models and Actual Building Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-11, August.
    14. Ali Mirchi & Saeed Hadian & Kaveh Madani & Omid M. Rouhani & Azadeh M. Rouhani, 2012. "World Energy Balance Outlook and OPEC Production Capacity: Implications for Global Oil Security," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(8), pages 1-26, July.
    15. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2839-2847.
    16. Douglas B. Reynolds & Marek Kolodziej, 2009. "North American Natural Gas Supply Forecast: The Hubbert Method Including the Effects of Institutions," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 2(2), pages 1-38, May.
    17. Coers, Robin & Sanders, Mark, 2013. "The energy–GDP nexus; addressing an old question with new methods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 708-715.
    18. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2450-2458.
    19. Alessandro Toscano & Filiberto Bilotti & Francesco Asdrubali & Claudia Guattari & Luca Evangelisti & Carmine Basilicata, 2016. "Recent Trends in the World Gas Market: Economical, Geopolitical and Environmental Aspects," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(2), pages 1-24, February.
    20. Vitor Baccarin Zanetti & Wilson Cabral De Sousa Junior & Débora M. De Freitas, 2016. "A Climate Change Vulnerability Index and Case Study in a Brazilian Coastal City," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(8), pages 1-12, August.
    21. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:2:p:154:d:63907 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Lo Giudice Gino Moncada & Francesco Asdrubali & Antonella Rotili, 2013. "Influence of new fac tors on global energy prospects in the medium term: compar ison among the 2010, 2011 and 2012 editions of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook reports," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2013(3), pages 67-89.
    23. Belloumi, Mounir, 2009. "Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2745-2753, July.
    24. Francesco Asdrubali & Franco Cotana & Federico Rossi & Andrea Presciutti & Antonella Rotili & Claudia Guattari, 2015. "Life Cycle Assessment of New Oxy-Fuels from Biodiesel-Derived Glycerol," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(3), pages 1-16, February.
    25. Burgos-Payán, Manuel & Roldán-Fernández, Juan Manuel & Trigo-García, Ángel Luis & Bermúdez-Ríos, Juan Manuel & Riquelme-Santos, Jesús Manuel, 2013. "Costs and benefits of the renewable production of electricity in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 259-270.
    26. Luca Evangelisti & Claudia Guattari & Paola Gori, 2015. "Energy Retrofit Strategies for Residential Building Envelopes: An Italian Case Study of an Early-50s Building," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(8), pages 1-16, August.
    27. Donghyun Kim & Up Lim, 2016. "Urban Resilience in Climate Change Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, April.
    28. Khatib, Hisham, 2011. "IEA World Energy Outlook 2010--A comment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2507-2511, May.
    29. Hiroaki Yaritani & Jun Matsushima, 2014. "Analysis of the Energy Balance of Shale Gas Development," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-21, April.
    30. Rabl, Ari & Rabl, Veronika A., 2013. "External costs of nuclear: Greater or less than the alternatives?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 575-584.
    31. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:4:p:405:d:68837 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Áron Perényi & Rowan E. Bedggood & Denny Meyer & Phillip Bedggood & Karen Farquharson & Clare Johansson & Gina Milgate, 2019. "Exploring the Effectiveness of an Energy Efficiency Behaviour Change Project on Well-Being Outcomes for Indigenous Households in Australia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    2. Jorge Miguel Carneiro Ribeiro & Radu Godina & João Carlos de Oliveira Matias & Leonel Jorge Ribeiro Nunes, 2018. "Future Perspectives of Biomass Torrefaction: Review of the Current State-Of-The-Art and Research Development," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    2. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
    3. Yao, Yao & Ivanovski, Kris & Inekwe, John & Smyth, Russell, 2019. "Human capital and energy consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "Environmental degradation, economic growth and energy consumption: Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 892-905.
    5. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    6. Al-mulali, Usama & Lee, Janice YM & Hakim Mohammed, Abdul & Sheau-Ting, Low, 2013. "Examining the link between energy consumption, carbon dioxide emission, and economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 42-48.
    7. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    8. José Alberto Fuinhas & António Cardoso Marques & Alcino Pinto Couto, 2015. "Oil-Growth Nexus in Oil Producing Countries: Macro Panel Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-163.
    9. Salahuddin, Mohammad & Gow, Jeff, 2014. "Economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 44-58.
    10. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Sabeen & Masood, Sameen, 2015. "The energy-growth nexus in Thailand: Does trade openness boost up energy consumption?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 265-274.
    11. Cowan, Wendy N. & Chang, Tsangyao & Inglesi-Lotz, Roula & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "The nexus of electricity consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-368.
    12. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 813-822.
    13. Mounir Ben Mbarek & Kais Saidi & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2018. "Renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, environmental degradation and economic growth in Tunisia," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 1105-1119, May.
    14. Tomas Vlcek & Martin Jirusek & James Henderson, 2015. "Risk Assessment in Construction Process in Nuclear Sector within the Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 482-493.
    15. Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin & Muhammad Haseeb & Muhammad Azam & Rabiul Islam, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, International Trade and Energy Consumption: Panel Data Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 841-850.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    17. Mounir Ben Mbarek & Nadia Ben Ali & Rochdi Feki, 2014. "Causality relationship between CO 2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity in Tunisia," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 1253-1262, December.
    18. Tarek Atalla & Simona Bigerna & Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2018. "Energy demand elasticities and weather worldwide," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 207-237, April.
    19. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2013. "How crude oil consumption impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 74-83.
    20. Stephan B. Bruns, Christian Gross and David I. Stern, 2014. "Is There Really Granger Causality Between Energy Use and Output?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:5:p:833-:d:98793. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: XML Conversion Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.