IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v36y2011i5p2450-2458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Pao, Hsiao-Tien
  • Tsai, Chung-Ming

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relationships between pollutant emissions, energy consumption, and the output for Brazil during 1980–2007. The Grey prediction model (GM) is applied to predict three variables during 2008–2013. In the long-run equilibrium emissions appear to be both energy consumption and output inelastic, but energy is a more important determinant of emissions than output. This may be because Brazilian unsustainable land use and forestry contribute most to the country’s greenhouse gas emissions. The findings of the inverted U-shaped relationships of both emissions–income and energy consumption–income imply that both environmental damage and energy consumption firstly increase with income, then stabilize, and eventually decline. The causality results indicate that there is a bidirectional strong causality running between income, energy consumption and emissions. In order to reduce emissions and to avoid a negative effect on the economic growth, Brazil should adopt the dual strategy of increasing investment in energy infrastructure and stepping up energy conservation policies to increase energy efficiency and reduce wastage of energy. The forecasting ability of GM is compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model over the out-of-sample period between 2002 and 2007. All of the optimal GMs and ARIMAs have a strong forecasting performance with MAPEs of less than 3%.

Suggested Citation

  • Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2450-2458.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:5:p:2450-2458
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.01.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544211000338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    2. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2009. "An econometric study of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1156-1164, March.
    3. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2009. "Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1779-1791.
    4. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Income and CO2 emissions: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 413-423, February.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    7. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "CO2 emissions, energy usage, and output in Central America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3282-3286, August.
    8. Stern, David I., 2004. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1419-1439, August.
    9. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    10. Mehrara, Mohsen, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic growth: The case of oil exporting countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2939-2945, May.
    11. Dinda, Soumyananda & Coondoo, Dipankor, 2006. "Income and emission: A panel data-based cointegration analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181, May.
    12. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    13. Ang, James B., 2008. "Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-278.
    14. Managi, Shunsuke & Jena, Pradyot Ranjan, 2008. "Environmental productivity and Kuznets curve in India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 432-440, April.
    15. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    16. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    17. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    18. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2009. "Energy consumption, economic growth, and carbon emissions: Challenges faced by an EU candidate member," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1667-1675, April.
    19. Zhou, P. & Ang, B.W. & Poh, K.L., 2006. "A trigonometric grey prediction approach to forecasting electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 2839-2847.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
    21. Akay, Diyar & Atak, Mehmet, 2007. "Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1670-1675.
    22. Coondoo, Dipankor & Dinda, Soumyananda, 2008. "Carbon dioxide emission and income: A temporal analysis of cross-country distributional patterns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 375-385, April.
    23. Friedl, Birgit & Getzner, Michael, 2003. "Determinants of CO2 emissions in a small open economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 133-148, April.
    24. Yao, Albert W.L. & Chi, S.C. & Chen, C.K., 2005. "Development of an integrated Grey–fuzzy-based electricity management system for enterprises," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 30(15), pages 2759-2771.
    25. Belloumi, Mounir, 2009. "Energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia: Cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2745-2753, July.
    26. Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
    27. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "A structural VAR analysis of electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2765-2769, July.
    28. Alves, Denisard C. O. & De Losso da Silveira Bueno, Rodrigo, 2003. "Short-run, long-run and cross elasticities of gasoline demand in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 191-199, March.
    29. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    30. AkbostancI, Elif & Türüt-AsIk, Serap & Tunç, G. Ipek, 2009. "The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 861-867, March.
    31. Martinez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Bengochea-Morancho, Aurelia, 2004. "Pooled mean group estimation of an environmental Kuznets curve for CO2," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 121-126, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Grey prediction model; Dynamic causal relationship; CO2 emissions; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:36:y:2011:i:5:p:2450-2458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.