IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/endesu/v25y2023i4d10.1007_s10668-022-02203-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is there a similar Granger causality among CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in different regimes in Iran?

Author

Listed:
  • Arash Refah-Kahriz

    (Urmia University)

  • Hassan Heidari

    (Urmia University)

  • Mahdiyeh Rahimdel

    (Urmia University)

Abstract

The primary aim of this study is that whether Granger causality (GC) among CO2 emissions, energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG) in different regimes in Iran is similar and sustainable. We answer this question using Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach and the quarterly data from 1970Q1 to 2015Q4. The findings show that the causal relationship switches among these variables in different regimes. In the first regime, the results show a positive unilateral GC from EG to EC. In the second regime, the study shows a negative GC from EC to EG, and a positive causality from EG to EC, and a negative unilateral causality from CO2 emissions to EG. The results indicate no causality from EG and EC to CO2 emissions in the first and second regimes. The results further show that the probability of sustainability in this first regime, where the rate of EG is at a low level but the amounts of EC and CO2 emissions are at a high level, will be high compared to the second regime. These findings call for more attention to the various effects of these variables on each regime before the policy implementation.

Suggested Citation

  • Arash Refah-Kahriz & Hassan Heidari & Mahdiyeh Rahimdel, 2023. "Is there a similar Granger causality among CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in different regimes in Iran?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3801-3822, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02203-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10668-022-02203-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-022-02203-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10668-022-02203-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Ching-Chih, 2010. "A multivariate causality test of carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3533-3537, November.
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Income and CO2 emissions: Evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 413-423, February.
    3. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2010. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in BRIC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7850-7860, December.
    4. Azomahou, Theophile & Laisney, Francois & Nguyen Van, Phu, 2006. "Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(6-7), pages 1347-1363, August.
    5. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "CO2 emissions, energy usage, and output in Central America," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3282-3286, August.
    6. Stern, David I., 2004. "The Rise and Fall of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1419-1439, August.
    7. Omri, Anis, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth nexus in MENA countries: Evidence from simultaneous equations models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 657-664.
    8. Chandran Govindaraju, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The dynamic links between CO2 emissions, economic growth and coal consumption in China and India," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 310-318.
    9. M S Karimi & S Ahmad & H Karamelikli & D T Dinç & Y A Khan & M T Sabzehei & S Z Abbas, 2021. "Dynamic linkages between renewable energy, carbon emissions and economic growth through nonlinear ARDL approach: Evidence from Iran," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-15, July.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. Grossman, G.M & Krueger, A.B., 1991. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," Papers 158, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    12. Theodore Panayotou, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Environment," CID Working Papers 56A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    13. Coondoo, Dipankor & Dinda, Soumyananda, 2008. "Carbon dioxide emission and income: A temporal analysis of cross-country distributional patterns," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 375-385, April.
    14. Gene M. Grossman & Alan B. Krueger, 1995. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(2), pages 353-377.
    15. Wang, Kuan-Min, 2012. "Modelling the nonlinear relationship between CO2 emissions from oil and economic growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1537-1547.
    16. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    17. Hettige, Hemamala & Lucas, Robert E B & Wheeler, David, 1992. "The Toxic Intensity of Industrial Production: Global Patterns, Trends, and Trade Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(2), pages 478-481, May.
    18. Seyi Saint Akadiri & Festus Victor Bekun & Elham Taheri & Ada Chigozie Akadiri, 2019. "Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: a causality evidence," International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 15(2/3), pages 320-336.
    19. Wang, Shaojian & Fang, Chuanglin & Guan, Xingliang & Pang, Bo & Ma, Haitao, 2014. "Urbanisation, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions in China: A panel data analysis of China’s provinces," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 738-749.
    20. Sheinbaum, Claudia & Ruíz, Belizza J. & Ozawa, Leticia, 2011. "Energy consumption and related CO2 emissions in five Latin American countries: Changes from 1990 to 2006 and perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 3629-3638.
    21. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
    22. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    23. Dinda, Soumyananda & Coondoo, Dipankor, 2006. "Income and emission: A panel data-based cointegration analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 167-181, May.
    24. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Saboori, Behnaz & Soleymani, Abdorreza, 2016. "Economic growth and carbon emissions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 388-397.
    25. Ang, James B., 2007. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and output in France," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4772-4778, October.
    26. Pao, Hsiao-Tien, 2009. "Forecast of electricity consumption and economic growth in Taiwan by state space modeling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1779-1791.
    27. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    28. Lean, Hooi Hooi & Smyth, Russell, 2010. "CO2 emissions, electricity consumption and output in ASEAN," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1858-1864, June.
    29. Lotfalipour, Mohammad Reza & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Ashena, Malihe, 2010. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions, and fossil fuels consumption in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 5115-5120.
    30. Jahangir Alam, Mohammad & Ara Begum, Ismat & Buysse, Jeroen & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2012. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 217-225.
    31. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "The causal dynamics between coal consumption and growth: Evidence from emerging market economies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1972-1977, June.
    32. Hojat Parsa & Seyyedeh Zahra Sajjadi, 2017. "Exploring the Trade Openness, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship in Iran by Bayer and Hanck Combined Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 21(4), pages 829-845, Autumn.
    33. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    34. Ang, James B., 2008. "Economic development, pollutant emissions and energy consumption in Malaysia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-278.
    35. Managi, Shunsuke & Jena, Pradyot Ranjan, 2008. "Environmental productivity and Kuznets curve in India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 432-440, April.
    36. Roca, Jordi, 2003. "Do individual preferences explain the Environmental Kuznets curve?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 3-10, April.
    37. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emissions in Middle East and North African countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 342-349.
    38. Orsi, Francesco & Muratori, Matteo & Rocco, Matteo & Colombo, Emanuela & Rizzoni, Giorgio, 2016. "A multi-dimensional well-to-wheels analysis of passenger vehicles in different regions: Primary energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic cost," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 197-209.
    39. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144, Elsevier.
    40. Chaido Dritsaki & Melina Dritsaki, 2014. "Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 125-136.
    41. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    42. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    43. Liu, Xiaozi & Heilig, Gerhard K. & Chen, Junmiao & Heino, Mikko, 2007. "Interactions between economic growth and environmental quality in Shenzhen, China's first special economic zone," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 559-570, May.
    44. Ghosh, Sajal, 2010. "Examining carbon emissions economic growth nexus for India: A multivariate cointegration approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3008-3014, June.
    45. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "A structural VAR analysis of electricity consumption and real GDP: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2765-2769, July.
    46. Cropper, Maureen & Griffiths, Charles, 1994. "The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 250-254, May.
    47. Shafik, Nemat & Bandyopadhyay, Sushenjit, 1992. "Economic growth and environmental quality : time series and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 904, The World Bank.
    48. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    49. AkbostancI, Elif & Türüt-AsIk, Serap & Tunç, G. Ipek, 2009. "The relationship between income and environment in Turkey: Is there an environmental Kuznets curve?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 861-867, March.
    50. Akinlo, A.E., 2009. "Electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria: Evidence from cointegration and co-feature analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 681-693, September.
    51. Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sato, João Ricardo, 2015. "On the relationships between CO2 emissions, energy consumption and income: The importance of time variation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 629-638.
    52. Acheampong, Alex O., 2018. "Economic growth, CO2 emissions and energy consumption: What causes what and where?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 677-692.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    2. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    3. Al Mamun, Md. & Sohag, Kazi & Hannan Mia, Md. Abdul & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Regional differences in the dynamic linkage between CO2 emissions, sectoral output and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-11.
    4. Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Multivariate granger causality between CO2 Emissions, energy intensity, financial development and economic growth: evidence from Portugal," MPRA Paper 37774, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Mar 2012.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    6. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin, 2013. "CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries: A cointegration approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 813-822.
    7. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2450-2458.
    8. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Hsu, Chia-Sheng & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2016. "Modeling the global relationships among economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 420-431.
    9. Karimkashi, Shervin & Amidpour, Majid, 2012. "Total site energy improvement using R-curve concept," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 329-340.
    10. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Shah, Syed Hasanat & Sato, João Ricardo, 2016. "Time-varying analysis of CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth nexus: Statistical experience in next 11 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 33-48.
    12. Faridul, Islam & Muhammad, Shahbaz, 2012. "Is There an Environmental Kuznets Curve for Bangladesh?," MPRA Paper 38490, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Apr 2012.
    13. Kais Saidi & Sami Hammami, 2016. "Economic growth, energy consumption and carbone dioxide emissions: recent evidence from panel data analysis for 58 countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 361-383, January.
    14. Saboori, Behnaz & Sulaiman, Jamalludin & Mohd, Saidatulakmal, 2012. "Economic growth and CO2 emissions in Malaysia: A cointegration analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 184-191.
    15. Sofien Tiba & Mohamed Frikha, 2020. "EKC and Macroeconomics Aspects of Well-being: a Critical Vision for a Sustainable Future," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 1171-1197, September.
    16. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Roubaud, David & Farhani, Sahbi, 2018. "How economic growth, renewable electricity and natural resources contribute to CO2 emissions?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 356-367.
    17. Bella, Giovanni & Massidda, Carla & Mattana, Paolo, 2014. "The relationship among CO2 emissions, electricity power consumption and GDP in OECD countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 970-985.
    18. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Environmental Kuznets Curve and the role of energy consumption in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34929, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Nov 2011.
    19. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Tsai, Chung-Ming, 2011. "Multivariate Granger causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, FDI (foreign direct investment) and GDP (gross domestic product): Evidence from a panel of BRIC (Brazil, Russian Federation, I," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 685-693.
    20. Aida Sy & Tony Tinker & Abdelkader Derbali & Lamia Jamel, 2016. "Economic growth, financial development, trade openness, and CO 2 emissions in European countries," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 155-179.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:endesu:v:25:y:2023:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-022-02203-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.