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Economic growth and carbon emissions

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  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar
  • Saboori, Behnaz
  • Soleymani, Abdorreza

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 181 countries. We propose a new approach based on the cross-correlation estimates to understand how economic growth and CO2 emissions are related. Our proposal is that if there is a positive cross-correlation between the current level of income and the past level of CO2 emissions and a negative cross-correlation between the current level of income and the future CO2 emissions, then CO2 emissions will decline with an increase in income over time, consistent with the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. Our main findings can be summarized as follows. First, for 21 out of 181 countries (12%), there is clear evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Second, we ask whether a rise in income reduces emissions in the future. We find that for 49 countries (27%), income growth will reduce emissions in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Saboori, Behnaz & Soleymani, Abdorreza, 2016. "Economic growth and carbon emissions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 388-397.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:388-397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.027
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Hao, Jun-Fang & Song, Juan, 2016. "The CO2 emission efficiency, reduction potential and spatial clustering in China’s industry: Evidence from the regional level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 213-223.
    2. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Wakeel A. Isola & Kazeem B. Ajide, 2019. "The capital investment channel of environmental improvement: evidence from BRICS," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1561-1582, August.
    3. Lau, Lin-Sea & Choong, Chee-Keong & Ng, Cheong-Fatt & Liew, Feng-Mei & Ching, Suet-Ling, 2019. "Is nuclear energy clean? Revisit of Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 12-20.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2019. "Testing the globalization-driven carbon emissions hypothesis: International evidence," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 158, pages 25-38.
    5. Kumar, Sandeep & Muhuri, Pranab K., 2019. "A novel GDP prediction technique based on transfer learning using CO2 emission dataset," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Nasreen, Samia & Mbarek, Mounir Ben & Atiq-ur-Rehman, Muhammad, 2020. "Long-run causal relationship between economic growth, transport energy consumption and environmental quality in Asian countries: Evidence from heterogeneous panel methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    7. Sugiawan, Yogi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2016. "The environmental Kuznets curve in Indonesia: Exploring the potential of renewable energy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 187-198.
    8. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    9. Samargandi, Nahla, 2017. "Sector value addition, technology and CO2 emissions in Saudi Arabia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 868-877.
    10. Zhimin Peng & Qunqi Wu, 2020. "Evaluation of the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO2 emissions in China’ transport sector: the FMOLS and VECM approaches," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(7), pages 6537-6561, October.
    11. Kurniawan, Robi & Managi, Shunsuke, 2018. "Coal consumption, urbanization, and trade openness linkage in Indonesia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 576-583.
    12. Mapapu, Babalwa & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Carbon emissions and economic growth in South Africa: A quantile regression approach," MPRA Paper 81801, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mladenović, Igor & Sokolov-Mladenović, Svetlana & Milovančević, Milos & Marković, Dušan & Simeunović, Nenad, 2016. "Management and estimation of thermal comfort, carbon dioxide emission and economic growth by support vector machine," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 466-476.
    14. Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2019. "Time frequency relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and environmental degradation in the United States: Evidence from transportation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 706-720.
    15. Moutinho, Victor & Varum, Celeste & Madaleno, Mara, 2017. "How economic growth affects emissions? An investigation of the environmental Kuznets curve in Portuguese and Spanish economic activity sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 326-344.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Haouas, Ilham & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2019. "Economic growth and environmental degradation in Vietnam: Is the environmental Kuznets curve a complete picture?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 197-218.
    17. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Alam, Md Samsul & Apergis, Nicholas, 2018. "The role of stock markets on environmental degradation: A comparative study of developed and emerging market economies across the globe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 19-30.
    18. Garrett-Peltier, Heidi, 2017. "Green versus brown: Comparing the employment impacts of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and fossil fuels using an input-output model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 439-447.
    19. Pablo-Romero, María del P. & Sánchez-Braza, Antonio, 2017. "Residential energy environmental Kuznets curve in the EU-28," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 44-54.
    20. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Huseyin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "Carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: The historical decomposition evidence from G-7 countries," Working Papers 15-41, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.

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    Keywords

    Economic growth; CO2 emissions; Cross-correlation;

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