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A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market

  • Massimiliano Marcellino

    (Istituto di Economia Politica, Università Bocconi and IGIER)

  • Grayham E. Mizon

    (Economics Department, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ U.K.)

  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    (Department of Economics and Nuffield College, Oxford University, Manor Road Building, Oxford OX1 3UQ, U.K.)

There is a wide literature on the dynamic adjustment of employment and its relationship with the business cycle. In this paper we present a statistical model that offers a congruent representation of part of the UK labour market since the mid 1960s. We use a cointegrated vector autoregressive Markov-switching model in which some parameters change according to the phase of the business cycle. Output, employment, labour supply and real earnings are found to have a common cyclical component. The long run dynamics are characterized by one cointegrating vector relating unemployment to trend-adjusted real wages and output. Despite there having been many changes affecting this sector of the UK economy, the Markov-switching vector-equilibrium-correction model with three regimes (representing recession, normal growth, and high growth) provides a good characterization of the sample data, and performs well relative to alternative linear and non-linear models. The results of an impulse-response analysis highlight the dangers of using VARs when the constancy of the estimated coefficients has not been established, and demonstrate the advantages of generating regime dependent responses.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirical Economics.

Volume (Year): 27 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 233-254

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Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:27:y:2002:i:2:p:233-254
Note: Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: August 2001
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, June.
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  3. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  4. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
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  8. Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
  9. H. Krolzig, 1996. "Statistical Analysis of Cointegrated VAR Processes with Markovian Regime Shifts," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1996,25, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  14. Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Disaggregated Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle in UK Manufacturing," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 442-60, Special I.
  15. Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
  16. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mizon, Grayham E., 2000. "Small system modelling of real wages, inflation, unemployment and output per capita in Italy 1970-1994," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0106, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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  19. Krolzig, H.-M. & Toro, J., 1999. "A New Approach to the Analysis of Shocks and the Cycle in a Model of Output and Employment," Economics Working Papers eco99/30, European University Institute.
  20. Hall, S G, 1989. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Cointegration Vectors: An Example of the Johansen Procedure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(2), pages 213-18, March.
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