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Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability

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  • Toft, Peter
  • Duero, Arash

Abstract

Accelerating oil import dependence in energy consuming nations highlights the importance of having energy supplies at sufficient levels and at stable and reasonable prices. Consequently, it is crucial that oil exporters realize their full production potential. Current debates on energy security are often focused on short-term risks e.g. sudden disruptions due to wars, domestic instability, etc. However, when it comes to assessing oil supplier reliability it is equally important to assess their longer term ability and willingness to deliver oil to the global market. This study analyzes the effects of petroleum investment policies on crude oil production trends in 14 major oil producing countries (2000-2010) by focusing on the political-institutional frameworks that shape the investment conditions for the upstream oil sector. Our findings indicate that countries with less favorable oil sector frameworks systematically performed worse than countries with investor friendly and privatized sectors. The findings indicate that assessments based on remaining reserves and planned production capacities alone could inflate expectations about future oil supplies in a world where remaining crude reserves are located in countries with unfavorable investment frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Toft, Peter & Duero, Arash, 2011. "Reliable in the long run? Petroleum policy and long-term oil supplier reliability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6583-6594, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6583-6594
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Sylvain Rossiaud, 2014. "Opening the upstream oil industry to private companies," Working Papers halshs-00960681, HAL.
    4. Feng, Zhuo & Zhang, Shui-Bo & Gao, Ying, 2014. "On oil investment and production: A comparison of production sharing contracts and buyback contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 395-402.
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    6. Julien-Joern Mueller & Liam Wagner, 2013. "The Devil’s Tears from the Tournament of Shadows: Oil Supply, Markets and Unstable Producers," Energy Economics and Management Group Working Papers 5-2013, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    7. Sylvain Rossiaud, 2015. "L’ouverture de l’amont pétrolier à des compagnies privées. Un cadre d’analyse en termes d’économie des coûts de transaction," Post-Print hal-01162793, HAL.

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