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Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises

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  • Inoue, Atsushi
  • Rossi, Barbara

Abstract

This paper examines the major interest groups in the debate over allowing the wholesale re-importation of prescription drugs through the Pharmaceutical Market Access Act. By making use of the logit model, we see the effects that each of these groups has had on the voting behavior of the 108 th Congress on the bill. We find evidence suggesting that Representatives are maximizing their electoral prospects: Contributions from pharmaceutical manufacturers and HMOs significantly influence the probability of voting for the Bill. Similarly, Representatives are sensitive to their constituencyís interest: employment in pharmaceutical manufacturing and the presence of senior citizens are also taken into account. However, the decision was by and large a partisan one: Party affiliation was the most important factor in passing the Bill.

Suggested Citation

  • Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises," Working Papers 05-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:05-02
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    Cited by:

    1. Cipollini, A. & Kapetanios, G., 2009. "Forecasting financial crises and contagion in Asia using dynamic factor analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 188-200, March.
    2. repec:dgr:rugsom:12005-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Hyeyoen Kim, 2011. "Large Data Sets, Nonlinearity and the Speed of Adjustment to Real Exchange Rate Shocks," Post-Print hal-00665456, HAL.
    4. Teuta Ismaili Muharremi, 2015. "Currency Crisis Revisited: A Literature Review," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(6), pages 117-124, December.
    5. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    6. Yucel, Eray, 2011. "A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models," MPRA Paper 32893, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Gatopoulos, Georgios & Loubergé, Henri, 2013. "Combined use of foreign debt and currency derivatives under the threat of currency crises: The case of Latin American firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 54-75.
    8. Boonman, Tjeerd M. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H., 2012. "The Global Financial Crisis and currency crises in Latin America," Research Report 12005-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; diffusion index; exchange rates;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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