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The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing

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  • Leo de Haan
  • Jan Willem van den End

Abstract

We investigate the information content of financial variables as signalling devices of two abnormal inflationary regimes: (1) very low inflation or deflation, and (2) high inflation. Specifically, we determine the information content of equity and house prices, private credit volumes, and sovereign and corporate bond yields, for 11 advanced economies over the past three decades, using both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and a logit model. The outcomes show that high asset prices more often signal high inflation than low inflation/deflation. However, in some countries, high asset prices and low bond yields are a significant indicator of low inflation or deflation as well. The transmission time of financial developments to inflation can be quite long (up to 8 quarters). For monetary policy, these findings imply that stimulating asset prices through Quantitative Easing (QE) can effectively influence inflation, but that the effects are quite uncertain, both in timing and direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Leo de Haan & Jan Willem van den End, 2016. "The signalling content of asset prices for inflation: Implications for Quantitative Easing," DNB Working Papers 516, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:516
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Benchimol & Makram El-Shagi, 2017. "Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quantitative Easing; Inflation; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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