Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market
Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that narrow money (M1) is the most conventional measure of liquidity, excessive growth of which may fuel speculative attacks on the currency. The literature on currency crises clearly lacks a country-specific study that addresses the long-run relationship between this indicator and the speculative pressure in the exchange market. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature using monthly Turkish time series data spanning the period 1984:04- 2006:11. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Granger causality tests reveal strong evidence supporting univariate causality running from narrow money (M1) to exchange market pressure. This outcome lends empirical support to the Turkish policy makers’ current efforts to maintain a tight control of the money supply.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2006|
|Date of revision:||Dec 2006|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU|
Phone: +44 (0) 1509 222701
Fax: +44 (0) 1509 223910
Web page: http://www.lboro.ac.uk/departments/sbe/research/economics/index.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004.
"Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach,"
- Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2005. "Currency crises in Asia: a multivariate logit approach," CCSO Working Papers 200506, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
- Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Maria, 2000. "Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-158, January.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
- Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
- Gian Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998.
"Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises; Empirical Regularities,"
IMF Working Papers
98/89, International Monetary Fund.
- Gian Maria Milesi Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 2000. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 285-323 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria & Razin, Assaf, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," CEPR Discussion Papers 1921, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Reuven Glick & Ramon Moreno, 1999.
"Money and credit, competitiveness, and currency crises in Asia and Latin America,"
Pacific Basin Working Paper Series
99-01, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
- Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael W. Klein & Nancy P. Marion, 1994.
"Explaining the Duration of Exchange-Rate Pegs,"
NBER Working Papers
4651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdes, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises; The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
- Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
- Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte & Kreuter, Christof, 2001. "On crisis models: An alternative crisis definition," Research Notes 01-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2006_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Huw Edwards)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.