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Impact of Liquidity on Speculative Pressure in the Exchange Market

  • Mete Feridun

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Loughborough University)

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    Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that narrow money (M1) is the most conventional measure of liquidity, excessive growth of which may fuel speculative attacks on the currency. The literature on currency crises clearly lacks a country-specific study that addresses the long-run relationship between this indicator and the speculative pressure in the exchange market. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature using monthly Turkish time series data spanning the period 1984:04- 2006:11. Results of the ADF unit root tests suggest that the series are stationary. Hence, no-cointegration analysis was carried out before the Granger-causality tests. Granger causality tests reveal strong evidence supporting univariate causality running from narrow money (M1) to exchange market pressure. This outcome lends empirical support to the Turkish policy makers’ current efforts to maintain a tight control of the money supply.

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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Loughborough University in its series Discussion Paper Series with number 2006_24.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2006
    Date of revision: Dec 2006
    Handle: RePEc:lbo:lbowps:2006_24
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    1. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis: Empirical Regularities," IMF Working Papers 98/89, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo O. Valdés, 1997. "Capital Flows and the Twin Crises : The Role of Liquidity," IMF Working Papers 97/87, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sims, Christopher A, 1972. "Money, Income, and Causality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(4), pages 540-52, September.
    7. Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H. & Lestano, 2005. "Currency crises in Asia: a multivariate logit approach," CCSO Working Papers 200506, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    8. Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Maria, 2000. "Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-158, January.
    9. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Glick, R. & Moreno, R., 1999. "Money and Credit, Competitiveness, and Currency Crises in Asia and Latin America," Papers 99-01, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
    11. Klein, Michael W. & Marion, Nancy P., 1997. "Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 387-404, December.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    13. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
    14. Eliasson, Ann-Charlotte & Kreuter, Christof, 2001. "On crisis models: An alternative crisis definition," Research Notes 01-1, Deutsche Bank Research.
    15. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA.
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