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The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach

Author

Listed:
  • Shawna L. Samuel
  • John W. Schindler
  • Steven B. Kamin

    (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)
    International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich)

Abstract

This paper uses Bayesian techniques to compare three definitions of optimality for the basic job search model: the standard income-maximizing definition, an approximation to the standard definition, and a simple alternative. The important role of prior choice in these comparisons is illustrated. Using natural conjugate priors to represent hypothetical samples of data, we find that the simple alternative is preferred to the standard definition of optimality. However, using priors constructed from findings in the literature, we are able to find some evidence in favor of the standard definition of optimality.

Suggested Citation

  • Shawna L. Samuel & John W. Schindler & Steven B. Kamin, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. María José Gil-Moltó & Joanna Poyago-Theotoky & Vasileios Zikos, 2006. "R&D policy and privatization in a mixed oligopoly," Discussion Paper Series 2006_25, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    2. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    3. Ihrig, Jane & Prior, David, 2005. "The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals' returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 273-286, July.
    4. repec:ags:pdcbeh:204182 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    6. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue aug, pages 313-369.
    7. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
    8. Aristovnik, Aleksander, 2006. "The Determinants & Excessiveness of Current Account Deficits in Eastern Europe & the Former Soviet Union," MPRA Paper 483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Johannes Hauptmann & Anja Hoppenkamps & Aleksey Min & Franz Ramsauer & Rudi Zagst, 2014. "Forecasting market turbulence using regime-switching models," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 28(2), pages 139-164, May.
    10. Andrew Berg & Rebecca N. Coke, 2004. "Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits; An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction," IMF Working Papers 04/39, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan & Kuper, Gerard H., 2003. "Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries," CCSO Working Papers 200313, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    12. Jane E. Ihrig, 2001. "Exchange-rate exposure of multinationals: focusing on exchange-rate issues," International Finance Discussion Papers 709, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 2001.
    13. Kenc, Turalay & Ozkan, Aydin & Ozkan, F. Gulcin, 2005. "Corporate bankruptcies and official bail-outs: A cost-benefit analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 437-453, December.
    14. Mete Feridun, 2006. "Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: An Application of Signals Approach to Turkey," Discussion Paper Series 2006_26, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2006.
    15. Bumba Mukherjee & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2013. "The IMF, Domestic Public Sector Banks, and Currency Crises in Developing States," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-29, January.
    16. Yifan Hu, 2003. "Empirical Investigations of Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series WP03-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    17. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.
    18. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    19. Vesna Bucevska, 2015. "Currency Crises in EU Candidate Countries: An Early Warning System Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 493-510, September.
    20. Radulescu, Magdalena, 2006. "The Impact of the National Bank of Romania's Monetary Policy on the Banking Credits, the Domestic Savings and Investments (As Compared to the Other Central and Eastern European Countries)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(2), pages 10-31, June.
    21. Jane E. Ihrig & David Prior, 2003. "The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on multinationals' returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 782, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 2003.
    22. Glen, Jack, 2002. "Devaluations and emerging stock market returns," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 409-428, December.
    23. Irma Alonso & Luis Molina, 2019. "The SHERLOC: an EWS-based index of vulnerability for emerging economies," Working Papers 1946, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    24. Hamdaoui, Mekki, 2016. "Are systemic banking crises in developed and developing countries predictable?," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 114-138.
    25. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.

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    Keywords

    Financial crises; Econometric models; Developing countries;

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