The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach
In this paper, a modified 'early warning system' (EWS) approach is developed to identify the roles of domestic and external factors in emerging market crises. Several probit models of currency crises were estimated for 26 emerging market countries. These models were used to identify the separate contributions to the probabilities of crisis of domestic and external variables. We found that, relative to domestic factors, adverse external shocks and large external imbalances contributed little to the average estimated probability of crisis in emerging market countries, but accounted for much more of the spikes in the probability of crisis estimated to occur during actual crisis years. We interpret these results to suggest that while, on average over time, domestic factors have tended to contribute to much of the underlying vulnerability of emerging market countries, adverse swings in external factors may have been important in pushing economies 'over the edge' and into currency crisis. In consequence, the costs of giving up exchange rate flexibility through adoption of strongly fixed exchange rate regimes-e.g. currency boards or dollarization-may be quite high for some countries. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Fratzscher, Marcel & Matthieu Bussiere, 2003.
"Towards A New Early Warning System of Financial Crises,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
81, Royal Economic Society.
- Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2002. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Working Paper Series 0145, European Central Bank.
- Hali J. Edison, 2000.
"Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
- Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley & Sona Shrestha, 1999.
"Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
7091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Chinn, Menzie D. & Dooley, Michael P. & Shrestha, Sona, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the context of an insurance model of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 659-681, August.
- Galindo, Arturo J. & Maloney, William F., 2002. "Second moments in speculative attack models: panel evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-129, January.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995.
"Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April.
- Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1993. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 9315, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Kruger, Mark & Osakwe, Patrick N. & Page, Jennifer, 1998. "Fundamentals, Contagion and Currency Crises: An Empirical Analysis," Staff Working Papers 98-10, Bank of Canada.
- Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
- Joseph Joyce & Linda Kamas, 1997. "The relative importance of foreign and domestic shocks to output and prices in Mexico and Colombia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(3), pages 458-478, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:3:p:317-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.