Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge
This paper examines why some countries experience economic recoveries without pick-up of bank credit (credit-less) and how different this recovery pattern is from the case where credit is increased as an economy recovers (credit-with). To answer these questions, the paper uses quarterly data covering 96 countries and identifies 272 recovery episodes. It finds that more than 25 percent of all recoveries are credit-less and around 45 percent of all credit-less recoveries occurred in 2009-10. It also finds that output and investment growth tends to be lower in credit-less events but, by eight quarters after the trough date, the gap between credit-less and credit-with episodes is mostly exhausted. Results of the probit estimations show that the size of the downturn and the extent of external adjustment are associated with the likelihood of credit-less recoveries. Moreover, fiscal loosening tends to be related to credit-less events while monetary easing and a country's decision to seek an International Monetary Fund-supported program reduce the probability of credit-less recoveries. Finally, the model suggests that many countries in the Europe and Central Asia region were likely to experience credit-less recoveries following the global financial crisis in 2008/09. What is more worrisome for them is the fact that they are facing another negative external shock.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433|
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page: http://www.worldbank.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bijsterbosch, Martin & Dahlhaus, Tatjana, 2011. "Determinants of credit-less recoveries," Working Paper Series 1358, European Central Bank.
- Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
- Coricelli, Fabrizio & Roland, Isabelle, 2011. "How do credit conditions shape economic recoveries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8325, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kannan, Prakash, 2012. "Credit conditions and recoveries from financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 930-947.
- Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Were Financial Crises Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 102-124, February.
- Steven B. Kamin & John Schindler & Shawna Samuel, 2007. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 317-336.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Carlos E. Zarazaga, 2007. "The role of total factor productivity in 'Phoenix Miracles' : insights from an emerging market crisis," Working Papers 0605, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.