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Were Financial Crises Predictable?

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates the nature of financial crises in the United States before 1914. It attempts to determine whether crises were statistically similar, predictable, and had a common generating mechanism. Using probit and hazard models and out-of-sample criteria, it is shown there are variables that explain movements in the probability of crises and that the probability of crises is seasonal. Two crises were predictable but in the other six episodes every forecasting model examined failed. These results suggest that financial crises were not all statistically alike and that their generation mechanisms differed. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Were Financial Crises Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 102-124, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:26:y:1994:i:1:p:102-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilhyock Shim & Goetz von Peter, 2007. "Distress selling and asset market feedback," BIS Working Papers 229, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
    3. Saksit Budsayaplakorn & Sel Dibooglu & Ike Mathur, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Indicators Predict a Currency Crisis? Evidence from Selected Southeast Asian Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 5-21, November.
    4. Miller, V., 1998. "Domestic bank runs and speculative attacks on foreign currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 331-338, April.
    5. George Monokroussos, 2013. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 71-105, June.
    6. Fratianni Michele, 2008. "Financial Crises, Safety Nets and Regulation," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 169-208.
    7. Martin Bijsterbosch & Tatjana Dahlhaus, 2015. "Key features and determinants of credit-less recoveries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1245-1269, December.
    8. Sugawara, Naotaka & Zalduendo, Juan, 2013. "Credit-less recoveries : neither a rare nor an insurmountable challenge," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6459, The World Bank.
    9. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2012. "Addressing Economic Crises: The Reference-Class Problem," Working Papers CEB 12-024, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    10. Xavier De Scheemaekere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2014. "Issues in Identifying Economic Crises: Insights from History," Working Papers CEB 14-014, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Konstandina Natalia, 2006. "Probability of Bank Failure: The Russian Case," EERC Working Paper Series 06-01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    12. Gong, Rui & Page, Frank, 2016. "Shadow banks and systemic risks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66044, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Diamondopoulos, John, 2012. "To what extent are financial crises comparable and thus predictable?," MPRA Paper 45668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Carree, Martin A., 2003. "A hazard rate analysis of Russian commercial banks in the period 1994-1997," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 255-269, September.
    15. Saksit Budsayaplakorn & Sel Dibooglu & Ike Mathur, 2010. "Can Macroeconomic Indicators Predict a Currency Crisis? Evidence from Selected Southeast Asian Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 5-21, November.
    16. Domonkos Tomáš & Ostrihoň Filip & Šikulová Ivana & Širaňová Mária, 2017. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239(1), pages 32-52, February.
    17. Carree, M.A., 2000. "Interest and Hazard Rates of Russian Saving Banks," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2000-26-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.

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