IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eer/wpalle/06-01e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Probability of Bank Failure: The Russian Case

Author

Listed:
  • Konstandina Natalia

Abstract

A question of explaining bank failures constitutes perhaps one of the greatest interest to banks' clients, policy-makers and regulators. Not surprisingly, for a long time, this question has been a challenge for theoretical and empirical economists. In this paper we investigate which factors affect soundness of a bank, taking into consideration micro level data, as well as macro level component. We also employ efficiency estimate, obtained with the help of DEA, to account for the quality of management. Then we use logit model and proportional hazard model with efficiency component. We find that efficiency element, together with size and regional belonging, are highly significant in all specifications, while macro variables did not seem to influence failures significantly.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstandina Natalia, 2006. "Probability of Bank Failure: The Russian Case," EERC Working Paper Series 06-01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:06-01e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eercnetwork.com/default/download/creater/working_papers/file/0e03ed325992612292bb5f4c315c03a7a397fcad.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Kiefer, Nicholas M, 1988. "Economic Duration Data and Hazard Functions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 646-679, June.
    3. Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
    4. A. Illarionov, 1999. "How The Russian Financial Crisis Was Organized [Ii]," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 29-56.
    5. Allen N. Berger & Timothy H. Hannan, 1998. "The Efficiency Cost Of Market Power In The Banking Industry: A Test Of The "Quiet Life" And Related Hypotheses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 454-465, August.
    6. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
    7. Kraft, Evan & Tirtiroglu, Dogan, 1998. "Bank Efficiency in Croatia: A Stochastic-Frontier Analysis," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 282-300, June.
    8. Ferrier, Gary D. & Lovell, C. A. Knox, 1990. "Measuring cost efficiency in banking : Econometric and linear programming evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 229-245.
    9. Richard S. BARR & Lawrence M. SEIFORD & Thomas F. SIEMS, 1994. "Forecasting Bank Failure : A Non-Parametric Frontier Estimation Approach," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 1994041, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. Kao, Chiang & Liu, Shiang-Tai, 2004. "Predicting bank performance with financial forecasts: A case of Taiwan commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 2353-2368, October.
    11. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Were Financial Crises Predictable?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(1), pages 102-124, February.
    12. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December.
    13. Resti, Andrea, 1997. "Evaluating the cost-efficiency of the Italian Banking System: What can be learned from the joint application of parametric and non-parametric techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 221-250, February.
    14. Anatoly Peresetsky & Alexandr Karminsky & Sergei Golovan, 2011. "Probability of default models of Russian banks," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 297-334, November.
    15. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
    16. English, M. & Grosskopf, S. & Hayes, K. & Yaisawarng, S., 1993. "Output allocative and technical efficiency of banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 349-366, April.
    17. P. Honohan, 2000. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, February.
    18. Styrin Konstantin, 2005. "X-inefficiency, Moral Hazard, and Bank Failures," EERC Working Paper Series 01-258e-2, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    19. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
    20. Berg, Sigbjorn Atle & Forsund, Finn R. & Hjalmarsson, Lennart & Suominen, Matti, 1993. "Banking efficiency in the Nordic countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2-3), pages 371-388, April.
    21. Osman Zaim, 1995. "The Effect of Financial Liberalizationon the Efficiency of Turkish Commercial Banks," Working Papers 9505, Department of Economics, Bilkent University.
    22. A. Illarionov, 1999. "How The Russian Financial Crisis Was Organized [I]," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 7-28.
    23. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sergey Drobyshevsky & Andrey Zubarev, 2011. "Sustainability of Russian Banks in 2007-2009," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 155P.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Sahut, Jean-Michel & Mili, Mehdi, 2011. "Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 138-146, January.
    3. Laurent Weill & Rima Turk & Zuzana Fungacova, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:erf:erfstu:78 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kočenda, Evžen & Iwasaki, Ichiro, 2021. "Bank Survival Around the World A Meta‐Analytic Review," CEI Working Paper Series 2021-02, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Harold Ngalawa & Fulbert Tchana Tchana & Nicola Viegi, 2016. "Banking instability and deposit insurance: The role of moral hazard," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 323-350, November.
    7. Anca Podpiera & Jiri Podpiera, 2005. "Deteriorating Cost Efficiency in Commercial Banks Signals an Increasing Risk of Failure," Working Papers 2005/06, Czech National Bank.
    8. Sufian, Fadzlan & Abdul Majid, Muhamed Zulkhibri, 2007. "Bank Ownership, Characteristics and Performance: A Comparative Analysis of Domestic and Foreign Islamic Banks in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 12131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2007.
    9. Berger, Allen N. & Humphrey, David B., 1997. "Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 175-212, April.
    10. Valentin Z. Toci & Iraj Hashi, 2013. "Intermediation Efficiency of Banks in South-East Europe: An Empirical Assessment Using Dea and Malmquist Index," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(3), pages 01-20, July.
    11. Sufian, Fadzlan, 2009. "Determinants of bank efficiency during unstable macroeconomic environment: Empirical evidence from Malaysia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 54-77, January.
    12. Canan Yildirim, 2009. "Moral Hazard, Corporate Governance, and Bank Failure: Evidence from The 2000-2001 Turkish Crises," Working Papers 486, Economic Research Forum, revised May 2009.
    13. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    14. Avkiran, Necmi Kemal, 1999. "The evidence on efficiency gains: The role of mergers and the benefits to the public," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7), pages 991-1013, July.
    15. Almanidis, Pavlos & Sickles, Robin C., 2015. "Banking Crises, Early Warning Models, and Efficiency," Working Papers 15-006, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    16. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Modélisation de la Prévision de Défaillance Bancaire Une Application aux Banques des Pays Emergents," Finance 0409026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Igor Jemrić & Boris Vujčić, 2002. "Efficiency of Banks in Croatia: A DEA Approach," Working Papers 7, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    18. Fitzpatrick, Trevor & McQuinn, Kieran, 2004. "Cost Efficiency in UK and Irish Credit Institutions," Research Technical Papers 3/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    19. Chu, Sing Fat & Lim, Guan Hua, 1998. "Share performance and profit efficiency of banks in an oligopolistic market: evidence from Singapore," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(2-3), pages 155-168, September.
    20. Christophe Godlewski, 2004. "Modélisation de la Prévision de Défaillance Bancaire et Facteurs Réglementaires Une Application aux Banques des Pays Emergents," Finance 0409027, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Gabriel Asaftei & Subal Kumbhakar, 2008. "Regulation and efficiency in transition: the case of Romanian banks," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 253-282, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russia; Russian banking; failures; efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:06-01e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.eercnetwork.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Pashchenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eercnetwork.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.