Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress
This paper studies banking distress in MENA countries and considers the extent to which mergers are used as a solution for resolving individual banking distress. We use a two-level nested logit model to model the interdependence between merger decisions and the distressed state of banks. Both bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables are deployed to predict banking distress. In line with other recent papers, we challenge the view that specific bank indicators such as CAMEL category and bank size are more significant determinants of banking distress than macroeconomic variables. A comparison of model fits and out-of-sample forecasts indicates that the unordered NL model statistically outperforms a standard logit model by substantial margins. Our empirical study shows that 67% of the distressed banks in our sample are involved in merger transactions and that weak financial status systematically increases the likelihood of a bank being involved in a merger. Distressed state-owned banks are less likely to be a target of a merger transaction. However, global economic conditions do not significantly affect the decision of distressed banks to initiate a merger policy.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
- Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995.
"Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Financial Industry Studies Working Paper 93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Altman, Edward I., 1977. "Predicting performance in the savings and loan association industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 443-466, October.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Corsetti, G. & Pesenti, P. & Roubini, N., 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Papers 343, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, March.
- Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, December.
- Kenneth Train, 2003. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Online economics textbooks, SUNY-Oswego, Department of Economics, number emetr2.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000.
"Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
[The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1993. "Explaining bank failures: deposit insurance, regulation, and efficiency," Working Papers 1993-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Stavros Peristiani, 1993. "The effect of mergers on bank performance," Research Paper 9313, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hadlock, Charles & Houston, Joel & Ryngaert, Michael, 1999. "The role of managerial incentives in bank acquisitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 221-249, February.
- Bliss, Richard T. & Rosen, Richard J., 2001. "CEO compensation and bank mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 107-138, July.
- Tito Cordella & Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 1998. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 110-131, March.
- Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Tito Cordella, 1997. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," IMF Working Papers 97/96, International Monetary Fund.
- Cordella, Tito & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 1998. "Public Disclosure and Bank Failures," CEPR Discussion Papers 1886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo & Ceyla PazarbaÅŸioÄŸlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
- Gary Gorton, 1986. "Banking panics and business cycles," Working Papers 86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 1998. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 6680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999. "Monitoring banking sector fragility : a multivariate logit approach with an application to the 1996-97 banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2085, The World Bank.
- Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress; A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
- Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
- Marco Arena, 2005. "Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the Nineties using Bank-Level Data," Staff Working Papers 05-19, Bank of Canada.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Pettway, Richard H & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1980. " Establishing On-Site Bank Examination Priorities: An Early-Warning System Using Accounting and Market Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 137-150, March.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Megamergers in banking and the use of cost efficiency as an antitrust defense," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
- Bongini, Paola & Claessens, Stijn & Ferri, Giovanni, 2000. "The political economy of distress in East Asian financial institutions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2265, The World Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:138-146. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.