IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?

Author

Listed:
  • Zuzana Fungacova
  • Ms. Rima A Turk
  • Laurent Weill

Abstract

We formulate the “High Liquidity Creation Hypothesis” (HLCH) that a proliferation in the core activity of bank liquidity creation increases failure probability. We test the HLCH in the context of Russian banking, which provides a natural field experiment due to numerous failures experienced over the past decade. Using Berger and Bouwman’s (2009) liquidity creation measures as a comprehensive proxy for overall bank output, we find that high liquidity creation significantly increases the probability of bank failure; this finding survives multiple robustness checks. Our results suggest that regulatory authorities can mitigate systemic distress and reduce the costs of bank failures to society through early identification of high liquidity creators and enhanced monitoring of their funding and investment activities.

Suggested Citation

  • Zuzana Fungacova & Ms. Rima A Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures: Do They Behave Differently?," IMF Working Papers 2015/103, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42903
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
    2. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    3. Robert B. Avery & Gerald A. Hanweck, 1984. "A dynamic analysis of bank failures," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Williamson, Stephen D, 1988. "Liquidity, Banking, and Bank Failures," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(1), pages 25-43, February.
    5. Claeys, Sophie & Schoors, Koen, 2007. "Bank supervision Russian style: Evidence of conflicts between micro- and macro-prudential concerns," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 630-657, September.
    6. Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995. "Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
    7. Hellwig, Martin, 1994. "Liquidity provision, banking, and the allocation of interest rate risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1363-1389, August.
    8. Postlewaite, Andrew & Vives, Xavier, 1987. "Bank Runs as an Equilibrium Phenomenon," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 485-491, June.
    9. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Weill, Laurent, 2009. "How market power influences bank failures: Evidence from Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    10. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    11. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    12. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    13. Craig O. Brown & I. Serdar Dinç, 2005. "The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(4), pages 1413-1444.
    14. Gorton, Gary, 1988. "Banking Panics and Business Cycles," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-781, December.
    15. A. Karas & K. Schoors, 2005. "Heracles or Sisyphus? Finding, cleaning and reconstructing a database of Russian banks," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/327, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    17. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2002. "Does deposit insurance increase banking system stability? An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(7), pages 1373-1406, October.
    18. Anil K. Kashyap & Raghuram Rajan & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002. "Banks as Liquidity Providers: An Explanation for the Coexistence of Lending and Deposit‐taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 33-73, February.
    19. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    20. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    21. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    22. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. Arturo Estrella & Sangkyun Park & Stavros Peristiani, 2000. "Capital ratios as predictors of bank failure," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 33-52.
    24. Joon-Ho Hahm & Hyun Song Shin & Kwanho Shin, 2013. "Noncore Bank Liabilities and Financial Vulnerability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 3-36, August.
    25. Zuzana Fungáčová & Laurent Weill, 2013. "Does competition influence bank failures?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 301-322, April.
    26. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    27. Rebel Cole & Lawrence White, 2012. "Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 5-29, October.
    28. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    29. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    30. David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 2000. "Why do Banks Disappear? The Determinants of U.S. Bank Failures and Acquisitions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 127-138, February.
    31. Arena, Marco, 2008. "Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
    32. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2001. "Liquidity Risk, Liquidity Creation, and Financial Fragility: A Theory of Banking," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(2), pages 287-327, April.
    33. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998. "The Nordic Banking Crisis: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 1998/007, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Craig P. Aubuchon & David C. Wheelock, 2010. "The geographic distribution and characteristics of U.S. bank failures, 2007-2010: do bank failures still reflect local economic conditions?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 395-415.
    35. Allen N. Berger & Christa H. S. Bouwman, 2009. "Bank Liquidity Creation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3779-3837, September.
    36. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1991. "Financial Markets and Financial Crises," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number glen91-1.
    37. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2004. "Financial Intermediaries and Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1023-1061, July.
    38. Mr. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises: Pitfalls in Financial Liberalization?," IMF Working Papers 1995/061, International Monetary Fund.
    39. Barth,James R. & Caprio,Gerard & Levine,Ross, 2008. "Rethinking Bank Regulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521709309, September.
    40. Jacklin, Charles J & Bhattacharya, Sudipto, 1988. "Distinguishing Panics and Information-Based Bank Runs: Welfare and Policy Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 568-592, June.
    41. Alonso, Irasema, 1996. "On avoiding bank runs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 73-87, February.
    42. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2002. "Bank Bailouts and Aggregate Liquidity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 38-41, May.
    43. DeYoung, Robert, 2003. "De Novo Bank Exit," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(5), pages 711-728, October.
    44. Rolnick, Arthur J. & Weber, Warren E., 1984. "The causes of free bank failures : A detailed examination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 267-291, November.
    45. E. Nur Ozkan-Gunay & Mehmed Ozkan, 2007. "Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(5), pages 465-480, November.
    46. Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
    47. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    48. Alexei Karas & William Pyle & Koen Schoors, 2013. "Deposit Insurance, Banking Crises, and Market Discipline: Evidence from a Natural Experiment on Deposit Flows and Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 179-200, February.
    49. Bryant, John, 1980. "A model of reserves, bank runs, and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 335-344, December.
    50. Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-868, September.
    51. Charles W. Calomiris & Joseph R. Mason, 2003. "Fundamentals, Panics, and Bank Distress During the Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1615-1647, December.
    52. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H. S., 2011. "Bank Liquidity Creation, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crises," Working Papers 11-21, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    53. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:4:p:1245-1284 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Davydov, Denis & Fungáčová, Zuzana & Weill, Laurent, 2018. "Cyclicality of bank liquidity creation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 81-93.
    2. Duan, Ying & Niu, Jijun, 2020. "Liquidity creation and bank profitability," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Zhang, Xingmin & Fu, Qiang & Lu, Liping & Wang, Qingyu & Zhang, Shuai, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation, network contagion and systemic risk: Evidence from Chinese listed banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Davydov, Denis & Vähämaa, Sami & Yasar, Sara, 2021. "Bank liquidity creation and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Jacobi, Arie & Tzur, Joseph, 2021. "Wealth distribution and probability of bank failure across countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    6. Lartey, Theophilus & James, Gregory A. & Danso, Albert, 2021. "Interbank funding, bank risk exposure and performance in the UK: A three-stage network DEA approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Berger, Allen N. & Sedunov, John, 2017. "Bank liquidity creation and real economic output," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    9. Pana, Elisabeta, 2023. "A bibliometric review of liquidity creation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Jérémie Bertrand & Paul-Olivier Klein & Jean-Loup Soula, 2022. "Liquidity Creation and Trust Environment," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 201-232, December.
    11. Kiemo, Samuel & Kamau, Anne & Rugiri, Irene W. & Talam, Camilla, 2021. "Macroprudential regulation and bank stability: The credit market signal," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 53, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    12. Zheng, Chen & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian & Cronje, Tom, 2019. "The moderating role of capital on the relationship between bank liquidity creation and failure risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Lu, Yiming & Wang, Yu, 2023. "Bank liquidity hoarding and bank systemic risk: The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Mäkinen, Mikko & Solanko, Laura, 2017. "Determinants of bank closures : Do changes of CAMEL variables matter?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 16/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    15. Jérémie Bertrand & Jean-Loup Soula & Paul-Olivier Klein, 2022. "Liquidity Creation and Trust Environment," Post-Print hal-03955028, HAL.
    16. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita & Ly, Kim Cuong & Pham, Ha, 2023. "The interrelationship between bank capital and liquidity creation: A non-linear perspective from the Asia-Pacific region," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 793-820.
    17. Berger, Allen N. & Li, Xinming & Saheruddin, Herman & Zhao, Daxuan, 2024. "Government guarantees and bank liquidity creation around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Huang, Shu-Chun & Chen, Wei-Da & Chen, Yehning, 2018. "Bank liquidity creation and CEO optimism," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 101-117.
    19. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita, 2020. "Financial stability of banks in India: Does liquidity creation matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fungacova, Zuzana & Turk, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2021. "High liquidity creation and bank failures," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Turk-Ariss, Rima & Weill, Laurent, 2013. "Does excessive liquidity creation trigger bank failures?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2013, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    6. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel, 2014. "Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-147.
    7. Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2014. "The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-256.
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and the Economy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2022-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita, 2020. "Financial stability of banks in India: Does liquidity creation matter?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    11. Berger, Allen N. & Li, Xinming & Saheruddin, Herman & Zhao, Daxuan, 2024. "Government guarantees and bank liquidity creation around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    13. Beccalli, Elena & Frantz, Pascal, 2016. "Why are some banks recapitalized and others taken over?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 79-95.
    14. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552, Elsevier.
    15. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    16. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Assaf, A. George & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Does efficiency help banks survive and thrive during financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-470.
    18. Gupta, Juhi & Kashiramka, Smita, 2024. "Examining the impact of liquidity creation on bank stability in the Asia Pacific region: Do ESG disclosures play a moderating role?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    19. Zheng, Chen & (Wai Kong) Cheung, Adrian & Cronje, Tom, 2019. "The moderating role of capital on the relationship between bank liquidity creation and failure risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    20. Mikko Makinen & Laura Solanko, 2018. "Determinants of Bank Closures: Do Levels or Changes of CAMEL Variables Matter?," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 3-21, June.
    21. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.