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Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach

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  • E. Nur Ozkan-Gunay
  • Mehmed Ozkan

Abstract

Purpose - The recent financial crises in the world have brought attention to the need for a new international financial architecture which rests on crisis prevention, crisis prediction and crisis management. It is therefore both desirable and vital to explore new predictive techniques for providing early warnings to regulatory agencies. The purpose of this study is to propose a new technique to prevent future crises, with reference to the last banking crises in Turkey. Design/methodology/approach - ANN is utilized as an inductive algorithm in discovering predictive knowledge structures in financial data and used to explain previous bank failures in the Turkish banking sector as a special case of EFMs (emerging financial markets). Findings - The empirical results indicate that ANN is proved to differentiate patterns or trends in financial data. Most of the bank failures could be predicted long before, with the utilization of an ANN classification approach, but more importantly it could be proposed to detect early warning signals of potential failures, as in the case of the Turkish banking sector. Practical implications - The regulatory agencies could use ANN as an alternative method to predict and prevent future systemic banking crises in order to minimize the cost to the economy. Originality/value - This paper reveals that the ANN approach can be proposed as a promising method of evaluating financial conditions in terms of predictive accuracy, adaptability and robustness, and as an alternative early warning method that can be used along with the most common alternatives such as CAMEL, financial ratio and peer group analysis, comprehensive bank risk assessment, and econometric models.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Nur Ozkan-Gunay & Mehmed Ozkan, 2007. "Prediction of bank failures in emerging financial markets: an ANN approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(5), pages 465-480, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jrfpps:v:8:y:2007:i:5:p:465-480
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    Cited by:

    1. Owen P. Hall Jr. & Darrol J. Stanley, 2012. "A comparative modelling analysis of firm performance," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, pages 43-56.
    2. Zuzana Fungacova & Rima Turk & Laurent Weill, 2015. "High Liquidity Creation and Bank Failures," IMF Working Papers 15/103, International Monetary Fund.
    3. José Eduardo Gómez-González & Inés Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un Modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
    4. Aaron Mehrotra, 2012. "On the use of sterilisation bonds in emerging Asia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 111-131 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Gao, Jianbo & Hu, Jing, 2014. "Financial crisis, Omori's law, and negative entropy flow," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 79-86.
    6. BATRANCEA, Ioan & STOIA, Ioan & CSEGEDI, Sandor & MOSCVICIOV, Andrei & NICHITA, Anca & ANDONE, Diana, 2013. "Econometric Model For Default Risk In Banks," Academica Science Journal, Economica Series, Dimitrie Cantemir University, Faculty of Economical Science, pages 35-43.

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