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Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907

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  • Moen, Jon R.
  • Tallman, Ellis W.

Abstract

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from noncrisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to 2010. The sample covers several episodes useful for understanding U.S. economic and financial history, which generate variation in the data that aids in identifying credit supply and demand shocks. We identify these shocks within MS-BVARs by tying credit supply and demand movements to inside money and its intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS-BVARs estimated, the data favor a MS-BVAR in which economic and financial crises and noncrisis business cycle regimes recur throughout the long annual sample. The best-fitting MS-BVAR also isolates SV regimes in which shocks to inside money dominate aggregate fluctuations.
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  • Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 145-163, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:60:y:2000:i:01:p:145-163_02
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    Cited by:

    1. Rockoff, Hugh, 2015. "O.M.W. Sprague (the man who “wrote the book” on financial crises) and the founding of the Federal Reserve," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 35-45.
    2. Hoag, Christopher, 2005. "Deposit drains on "interest-paying" banks before financial crises," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 567-585, October.
    3. Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100562, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Asaf Bernstein & Eric Hughson & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2008. "Can a Lender of Last Resort Stabilize Financial Markets? Lessons from the Founding of the Fed," NBER Working Papers 14422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 2003. "Financial intermediation," Handbook of the Economics of Finance,in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 431-552 Elsevier.
    6. Gary Gorton & Ellis W. Tallman, 2016. "How Did Pre-Fed Banking Panics End?," NBER Working Papers 22036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gorton, Gary & Huang, Lixin, 2006. "Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1613-1629, October.
    8. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    9. Laurent Le Maux & Laurence Scialom, 2013. "Central banks and financial stability: rediscovering the lender-of-last-resort practice in a finance economy," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 1-16.
    10. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:3:p:435-458 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Felton, Andrew & Reinhart, Carmen M. (ed.), 2009. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century Part II: June–December, 2008," Vox eBooks, Centre for Economic Policy Research, number p199.
    12. Daniel R. Sanches, 2013. "Banking crises and the role of bank coalitions," Working Papers 13-28, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2014.
    13. Bernstein, Asaf & Hughson, Eric & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Identifying the effects of a lender of last resort on financial markets: Lessons from the founding of the fed," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 40-53, October.
    14. Christopher Hoag, 2015. "Clearinghouse Loan Certificates as Interbank Loans," Working Papers 1504, Trinity College, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2015.
    15. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish & Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(1), pages 218-243, February.
    16. Jacobson, Margaret M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Liquidity provision during the crisis of 1914: Private and public sources," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 22-34.
    17. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    18. Sanches, Daniel, 2013. "On the welfare properties of fractional reserve banking," Working Papers 13-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 04 Feb 2013.
    19. Frederic S. Mishkin & Eugene N. White, 2014. "Unprecedented Actions: The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 20737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Tallman, Ellis W & Wicker, Elmus R., 2009. "Banking and Financial Crises in United States History: What Guidance can History Offer Policymakers?," MPRA Paper 21839, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Hugh Rockoff, 2013. "O.M.W. Sprague (the Man who "Wrote the Book" on Financial Crises) and the Founding of the Federal Reserve," NBER Working Papers 19758, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jaremski, Matthew, 2015. "Clearinghouses as credit regulators before the fed?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 10-21.
    23. Daniel Sanches, 2016. "On The Welfare Properties Of Fractional Reserve Banking," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 935-954, August.
    24. Tallman, Ellis W. & Moen, Jon R., 2014. "The Transmission of the Financial Crisis in 1907: An Empirical Investigation," Working Paper 1409, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    25. Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "The Panic of 1907," Working Paper 1228, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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