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Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression

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  • Anari, Ali
  • Kolari, James
  • Mason, Joseph

Abstract

We hypothesize that financial disintermediation during and after the Great Depression arose from the slow liquidation of failed-bank deposits. Empirical results from incorporating the stock of failed national bank deposits for the period 1921-40 in vector autoregression (VAR) models suggest that the stock of deposits in closed banks undergoing liquidation is as important as money stock in terms of explaining output changes over forecast horizons from one to three years. Hence, we infer that the dynamic effects of banking sector shocks were cumulative and pervasive during and after the Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Anari, Ali & Kolari, James & Mason, Joseph, 2005. "Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 753-773, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:4:p:753-73
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1975. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(3), pages 269-282, June.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1970. "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(6), pages 1228-1263, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    4. Grossman, Herschel I & Policano, Andrew J, 1975. "Money Balances, Commodity Inventories, and Inflationary Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1093-1112, December.
    5. Feige, Edgar L & Parkin, Michael, 1971. "The Optimal Quantity of Money, Bonds, Commodity Inventories, and Capital," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 335-349, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 836-882, June.
    2. Ghosh, Amit, 2017. "Do bank failures still matter in affecting regional economic activity?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 1-16.
    3. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kasuya, Munehisa & Akashi, Kentaro, 2009. "Impaired bank health and default risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 145-162.
    4. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cangemi, Robert R. & Mason, Joseph R. & Pagano, Michael S., 2012. "Options-based structural model estimation of bond recovery rates," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 473-506.
    6. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Kentaro Akashi, 2008. "Impaired Bank Health and Default Risk ( Forthcoming in "Pacific-Basin Finance Journal". )," CARF F-Series CARF-F-122, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 145-163, March.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Flandreau, Marc & Laeven, Luc, 2016. "Political foundations of the lender of last resort: A global historical narrative," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 48-65.
    9. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010," Working Paper Series 1458, European Central Bank.
    10. Breitenlechner, Max & Scharler, Johann, 2017. "Decomposing the U.S. Great Depression: How important were Loan Supply Shocks?," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168208, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Chin Alycia & Warusawitharana Missaka, 2010. "Financial Market Shocks during the Great Depression," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Daniel K. Fetter & Lee M. Lockwood, 2016. "Government Old-Age Support and Labor Supply: Evidence from the Old Age Assistance Program," NBER Working Papers 22132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. DeYoung, Robert & Kowalik, Michal & Reidhill, Jack, 2013. "A theory of failed bank resolution: Technological change and political economics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 612-627.
    14. Liu, Wei & Kolari, James W. & Kyle Tippens, T. & Fraser, Donald R., 2013. "Did capital infusions enhance bank recovery from the great recession?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5048-5061.
    15. Mark A. Carlson, 2008. "Alternatives for distressed banks and the panics of the Great Depression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Suntum Ulrich van & Ilgmann Cordelius, 2009. "Das Bilanzproblem der Banken – Ein Lösungsvorschlag / The bank‘s balance sheet problems: a proposal for a solution," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 223-246, January.
    17. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.
    18. Ramcharan, Rodney & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2014. "Financial Fire Sales: Evidence from Bank Failures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Rajan, Raghuram & Ramcharan, Rodney, 2016. "Local financial capacity and asset values: Evidence from bank failures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 229-251.

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