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Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach

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  • Coe, Patrick J

Abstract

I explore the timing of and effects of the U.S. financial crisis of the 1930s in a regime switching framework. Estimated conditional probabilities over the state of the financial sector suggest that a prolonged period of crisis begins not with the 1929 stock market crash, but with the first banking panic of October 1930. These probabilities also suggest that the crisis persists until the introduction of Federal deposit insurance in early 1934. Consistent with the view that this financial crisis had real effects, these conditional probabilities contain additional explanatory power for output fluctuations. This persists even when money is added to the equation.

Suggested Citation

  • Coe, Patrick J, 2002. "Financial Crisis and the Great Depression: A Regime Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 76-93, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:34:y:2002:i:1:p:76-93
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    Cited by:

    1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 836-882, June.
    2. A. Johansen & D. Sornette, 2002. "Endogenous versus Exogenous Crashes in Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0210509, arXiv.org.
    3. Tchana Tchana, Fulbert, 2014. "The empirics of banking regulation," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, pages 49-76.
    4. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    5. repec:kap:openec:v:28:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11079-017-9435-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin & Peltonen, Tuomas, 2017. "Dating systemic financial stress episodes in the EU countries," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, pages 30-56.
    7. Patrick J. Coe & James M. Nason, 2004. "Long-run monetary neutrality and long-horizon regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 355-373.
    8. Mark Carlson, 2004. "Are Branch Banks Better Survivors? Evidence from the Depression Era," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 111-126, January.
    9. Jiří Mazurek & Elena Mielcová, 2013. "The Evaluation of Economic Recession Magnitude: Introduction and Application," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2013(2), pages 182-205.
    10. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 145-163, March.
    12. Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2005. "Exploring interactions between real activity and the financial stance," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 308-341, April.
    13. Svec, Jiri & Katrak, Xerxis, 2017. "Forecasting volatility with interacting multiple models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 245-252.
    14. Barthélemy, Jean & Marx, Magali, 2017. "Solving endogenous regime switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-25.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 2017. "The London Monetary and Economic Conference of 1933 and the End of The Great Depression: A “Change of Regime” Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Jutasompakorn, Pearpilai & Brooks, Robert & Brown, Christine & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Banking crises: Identifying dates and determinants," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 150-166.
    17. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas, 2006. "Regime switching and artificial neural network forecasting of the Cyprus Stock Exchange daily returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 371-383.
    18. Kanas, Angelos, 2005. "Regime linkages between the Mexican currency market and emerging equity markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 109-125, January.
    19. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    20. M Cruz, 2003. "The Business Cycle in a Financially Deregulated Context: Theory and Evidence," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0331, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Bertrand Maillet & Madalina Olteanu & Joseph Rynkiewicz, 2004. "Caractérisation des crises financières à l'aide de modèles hybrides (HMC-MLP)," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 114(4), pages 489-506.
    22. Ryan A. Compton & Jose Ricardo da Costa e Silva, 2005. "Finance and the Business Cycle: a Kalman Filter Approach with Markov Switching," Working Papers Series 97, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    23. Eleni Constantinou & Robert Georgiades & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas, 2005. "Regime Switching and Artificial Neural Network Forecasting," Working Papers 0502, University of Crete, Department of Economics.

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