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Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Reaction: Evidence from the GCC Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed H. Elsayed

    (Durham University)

  • Nader Naifar

    (University of Sfax)

  • Ahmed H. Elsayed

    (University Lahore)

Abstract

This paper investigates the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereafter GCC) countries by introducing a new composite financial stability index to monitor the financial vulnerabilities and crisis periods. To this end, the study estimated monetary policy reaction functions for each of the GCC countries (namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) over the period from 2006-Q4 to 2020-Q2. Empirical findings indicate that monetary authorities' response to the deviation of inflation from their target level, output gap, or exchange rate movement differ in terms of magnitude, sign, and significance across the GCC countries. The results further explain that monetary authorities react significantly to negative or positive shocks in financial stability, but their reaction is different in the short-run or long run. Overall, an augmented Taylor rule including financial stability as an additional monetary policy objective is more appropriate for the GCC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed H. Elsayed & Nader Naifar & Ahmed H. Elsayed, 2021. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Reaction: Evidence from the GCC Countries," Working Papers 1474, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1474
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    2. Narjis Abdlkareem Ibrahim & Mahdi Salehi & Hussen Amran Naji Al-Refiay & Mahmoud Lari Dashtbayaz, 2024. "A Financial Stability Model for Iraqi Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, September.
    3. Rishika Khetan & Varda Sardana & Shubham Singhania & Jagvinder Singh, 2025. "Financial stability through a global perspective: an in-depth integrative review," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 16(8), pages 2912-2929, August.
    4. Peterson K. Ozili, 2025. "Impact of monetary policy on financial stability in good times," Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 131-149, April.
    5. Peng, Donghui & Ye, Ying & Chen, Qionghao, 2024. "Impact of cross-border capital flows on foreign exchange market stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    6. Mabruk Billah & Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Ghadeer Kayal, 2025. "Multifractal analysis of GCC banking stock efficiency dynamics: impact of financial stress, economic policy uncertainty, and geopolitical factors," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(3), pages 641-686, September.
    7. Saif Ullah & Atta Ullah & Mubasher Zaman, 2024. "Nexus of governance, macroeconomic conditions, and financial stability of banks: a comparison of developed and emerging countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, December.
    8. Ahmad S. Al Humssi & Vladimir Z. Chapliuk & Larisa N. Sorokina & Liliya G. Akhmetshina, 2024. "Modelling the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Country’s Financial Stability: Evidence from the Russian Federation," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 62-81.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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