IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1474.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Reaction: Evidence from the GCC Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed H. Elsayed

    (Durham University)

  • Nader Naifar

    (University of Sfax)

  • Ahmed H. Elsayed

    (University Lahore)

Abstract

This paper investigates the interaction between monetary policy and financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (hereafter GCC) countries by introducing a new composite financial stability index to monitor the financial vulnerabilities and crisis periods. To this end, the study estimated monetary policy reaction functions for each of the GCC countries (namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates) using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) over the period from 2006-Q4 to 2020-Q2. Empirical findings indicate that monetary authorities' response to the deviation of inflation from their target level, output gap, or exchange rate movement differ in terms of magnitude, sign, and significance across the GCC countries. The results further explain that monetary authorities react significantly to negative or positive shocks in financial stability, but their reaction is different in the short-run or long run. Overall, an augmented Taylor rule including financial stability as an additional monetary policy objective is more appropriate for the GCC countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed H. Elsayed & Nader Naifar & Ahmed H. Elsayed, 2021. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy Reaction: Evidence from the GCC Countries," Working Papers 1474, Economic Research Forum, revised 20 Aug 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1474
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://erf.org.eg/publications/financial-stability-and-monetary-policy-reaction-evidence-from-the-gcc-countries-2/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bit.ly/3t1KyGK
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Menzie Chinn & Kavan Kucko, 2015. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve Across Countries and Time," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 129-156, June.
    2. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    3. Daude, Christian & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Nagengast, Arne J., 2016. "On the effectiveness of exchange rate interventions in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 239-261.
    4. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    6. ., 2017. "US monetary policy and the global crude oil market," Chapters, in: Monetary Policy and Crude Oil, chapter 3, pages 109-129, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    8. Claudiu T. Albulescu, 2011. "Economic and Financial Integration of CEECs: The Impact of Financial Instability," Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 027-045, March.
    9. Kapetanios, G. & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yamagata, T., 2011. "Panels with non-stationary multifactor error structures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(2), pages 326-348, February.
    10. Tobal, Martin & Menna, Lorenzo, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    11. Allen, William A. & Wood, Geoffrey, 2006. "Defining and achieving financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 152-172, June.
    12. Buch, Claudia M. & Eickmeier, Sandra & Prieto, Esteban, 2014. "In search for yield? Survey-based evidence on bank risk taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 12-30.
    13. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Andrew D. Crockett, 1997. "Why is financial stability a goal of public policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q IV), pages 5-22.
    15. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2009. "Monetary and financial stability in the euro area: Pro-cyclicality versus trade-off," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 662-674, October.
    16. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Financial stress dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from the Arab Spring," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 20-34.
    17. Martin, Christopher & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Financial crises and monetary policy: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 654-661.
    18. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-2326.
    19. Taylor Mark P. & Davradakis Emmanuel, 2006. "Interest Rate Setting and Inflation Targeting: Evidence of a Nonlinear Taylor Rule for the United Kingdom," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, December.
    20. Claudiu T Albulescu & Daniel Goyeau & Dominique Pépin, 2013. "Financial instability and ECB monetary policy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 388-400.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    22. Valencia, Fabián, 2014. "Monetary policy, bank leverage, and financial stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 20-38.
    23. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Lianfa Li, 2008. "Do Capital Adequacy Requirements Matter For Monetary Policy?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 643-659, October.
    24. Steven B. Kamin & John Schindler & Shawna Samuel, 2007. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market currency crises: an early warning systems approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 317-336.
    25. Oosterloo, Sander & de Haan, Jakob, 2004. "Central banks and financial stability: a survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 257-273, December.
    26. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    27. Aswathi R.Nair & B.Anand, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial stability: Should central bank lean against the wind?," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(3), pages 133-142.
    28. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    29. Andrew D. Crockett, 1997. "Why is financial stability a goal of public policy?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-36.
    30. DellʼAriccia, Giovanni & Laeven, Luc & Marquez, Robert, 2014. "Real interest rates, leverage, and bank risk-taking," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 65-99.
    31. Tong, Eric, 2017. "US monetary policy and global financial stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 466-485.
    32. Paul De Grauwe & Daniel Gros, 2009. "A New Two-Pillar Strategy for the ECB," CESifo Working Paper Series 2818, CESifo.
    33. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    34. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    35. Jayantee SAHOO, 2020. "Financial stress index, growth and price stability in India: Some recent evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 105-124, Spring.
    36. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    37. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    38. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Global Financial Instability: Framework, Events, Issues," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    39. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 2016. "Does Fed policy reveal a ternary mandate?," Working Papers 16-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    40. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, April.
    41. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    42. Driffill, John & Rotondi, Zeno & Savona, Paolo & Zazzara, Cristiano, 2006. "Monetary policy and financial stability: What role for the futures market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 95-112, April.
    43. Ferhat Camlica, 2016. "Responsiveness of monetary policy to financial stress in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(4), pages 143-150.
    44. Fredj Jawadi & Sushanta Kumar Mallick & Ricardo Magalhães Sousa, 2014. "Nonlinear monetary policy reaction functions in large emerging economies: the case of Brazil and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(9), pages 973-984, March.
    45. Michael R King, 2009. "The cost of equity for global banks: a CAPM perspective from 1990 to 2009," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    46. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    47. André F. Perold, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    48. Mark Illing & Ying Liu, 2003. "An Index of Financial Stress for Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-14, Bank of Canada.
    49. Ravi Balakrishnan & Stephan Danninger & Selim Elekdag & Irina Tytell, 2011. "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 40-68, May.
    50. José De Gregorio, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: An Emerging Markets Perspective," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 141-156, March.
    51. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peng, Donghui & Ye, Ying & Chen, Qionghao, 2024. "Impact of cross-border capital flows on foreign exchange market stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    2. Saif Ullah & Atta Ullah & Mubasher Zaman, 2024. "Nexus of governance, macroeconomic conditions, and financial stability of banks: a comparison of developed and emerging countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-38, December.
    3. Ahmad S. Al Humssi & Vladimir Z. Chapliuk & Larisa N. Sorokina & Liliya G. Akhmetshina, 2024. "Modelling the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Country’s Financial Stability: Evidence from the Russian Federation," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 62-81.
    4. Narjis Abdlkareem Ibrahim & Mahdi Salehi & Hussen Amran Naji Al-Refiay & Mahmoud Lari Dashtbayaz, 2024. "A Financial Stability Model for Iraqi Companies," Risks, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    3. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    4. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    5. Nikola Fabris & Milena Lazić, 2022. "Evaluating the Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy Reaction Function of Advanced and Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(2), pages 77-96.
    6. Ahmad AlHarbi & Wafa Sbeiti & Moid Ahmad, 2024. "Money Supply, Banking and Economic Growth: A Cross Country Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(2), pages 234-242, March.
    7. utku altunöz, 2022. "Describing of central banks’ monetary policy in the context to linear and nonlinear taylor rule: the case of Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4641-4662, December.
    8. Layal MansourIshrakieh & Leila Dagher & Sadika El Hariri, 2020. "A financial stress index for a highly dollarized developing country : The case of Lebanon," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 20(2), pages 43-52.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Paweł Baranowski, 2008. "Reguła Taylora i jej rozszerzenia," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 1-23.
    11. Mansour Ishrakieh, Layal & Dagher, Leila & El Hariri, Sadika, 2018. "The Institute of Financial Economics Financial Stress Index (IFEFSI) for Lebanon," MPRA Paper 116054, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    13. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 173, European Central Bank.
    14. Mustafa Caglayan & Zainab Jehan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy: Evidence from Canada and the Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-293, July.
    15. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2022. "COVID-19 and Monetary policy with zero bounds: A cross-country investigation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    16. Jacek Kotlowski, 2005. "Reaction functions of the Polish central bankers. A logit approach," Working Papers 18, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    17. Juan Paez-Farrell, 2009. "Monetary policy rules in theory and in practice: evidence from the UK and the US," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(16), pages 2037-2046.
    18. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    19. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    20. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1474. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.