IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fiu/wpaper/2112.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 and Monetary Policy with Zero Bounds: A Cross-Country Investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Hakan Yilmazkuday

    (Department of Economics, Florida International University)

Abstract

Using daily data on policy rates from 28 advanced economies and 32 emerging markets, this paper investigates the monetary policy reaction function of central banks during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. The results show that emerging markets or countries without a zero bound on their interest rates were able to reduce interest rates as a reaction to reduced economic activity and to the volatility in their exchange rates, whereas advanced economies or countries with a zero bound on their interest rates were not. Several policy implications follow for countries with a zero bound on their interest rates amid COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2021. "COVID-19 and Monetary Policy with Zero Bounds: A Cross-Country Investigation," Working Papers 2112, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2112
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economics.fiu.edu/research/pdfs/2021_working_papers/2112.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luca Fornaro & Martin Wolf, 2020. "Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy," Economics Working Papers 1713, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    2. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2020. "Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 279-332.
    3. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
    5. Michael J. Fleming & Asani Sarkar & Peter Van Tassel, 2020. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Fed’s Response," Liberty Street Economics 20200415, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    7. Altig, Dave & Baker, Scott & Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nicholas & Bunn, Philip & Chen, Scarlet & Davis, Steven J. & Leather, Julia & Meyer, Brent & Mihaylov, Emil & Mizen, Paul & Parker, Nicholas &, 2020. "Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Miguel Almunia & Agustín Bénétrix & Barry Eichengreen & Kevin H. O’Rourke & Gisela Rua, 2010. "From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: similarities, differences and lessons [Germany: Guns, butter, and economic miracles]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 219-265.
    9. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    11. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 247-277, July.
    12. Martin Feldkircher & Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Measuring the effectiveness of US monetary policy during the COVID‐19 recession," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 287-297, July.
    13. Feng, Gen-Fu & Yang, Hao-Chang & Gong, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 705-719.
    14. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    15. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    16. Taylor, John B. (ed.), 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226791258, September.
    17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1.
    18. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    19. Efraim Benmelech & Nitzan Tzur-Ilan, 2020. "The Determinants of Fiscal and Monetary Policies During the Covid-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prabheesh, K.P. & Sasongko, Aryo & Indawan, Fiskara, 2023. "Did the policy responses influence credit and business cycle co-movement during the COVID-19 crisis? Evidence from Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 243-255.
    2. Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Simkins, Betty J., 2022. "COVID-19 and the Economy: Summary of research and future directions," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Ayinde, Taofeek O. & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2022. "Global evidence of the COVID-19 shock on real equity prices and real exchange rates: A counterfactual analysis with a threshold-augmented GVAR model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Cao, Fangzhi & Su, Chi-Wei & Sun, Dian & Qin, Meng & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "U.S. monetary policy: The pushing hands of crude oil price?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert, 2021. "Do currency exchange rates impact gold prices? New evidence from the ongoing COVID-19 period," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2024. "Who has mastered exchange rate ups and downs: China or the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Wan, Zhao & Tian, Haowen, 2022. "The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on information disclosure: Evidence from China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Deev, Oleg & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2022. "How to calm down the markets? The effects of COVID-19 economic policy responses on financial market uncertainty," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Maheepala, M.M.J.D., 2022. "Conventional monetary policy, COVID-19, and stock markets in emerging economies," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    10. Aquilante, Tommaso & Di Pace, Federico & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2022. "Exchange-rate and news: Evidence from the COVID pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    2. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Helmi, Mohamad Husam & Çatık, Abdurrahman Nazif & Menla Ali, Faek & Akdeniz, Coşkun, 2018. "Monetary policy rules in emerging countries: Is there an augmented nonlinear taylor rule?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 306-319.
    3. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
    4. Narek Ohanyan & Aleksandr Grigoryan, 2021. "Measuring monetary policy: rules versus discretion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 35-60, July.
    5. Ozge Senay, 2008. "Interest Rate Rules And Welfare In Open Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 300-329, July.
    6. Akosah, Nana Kwame & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul & Schaling, Eric, 2020. "Testing for asymmetry in monetary policy rule for small-open developing economies: Multiscale Bayesian quantile evidence from Ghana," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    7. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2002. "Openness and equilibrium determinacy under interest rate rules," Working Paper Series 173, European Central Bank.
    8. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Naifar, Nader & Nasreen, Samia, 2023. "Financial stability and monetary policy reaction: Evidence from the GCC countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 396-405.
    10. Mustafa Caglayan & Zainab Jehan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy: Evidence from Canada and the Uk," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 279-293, July.
    11. Käfer Benjamin, 2014. "The Taylor Rule and Financial Stability – A Literature Review with Application for the Eurozone," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 65(2), pages 159-192, August.
    12. Marcelo Sanchez, 2008. "The link between interest rates and exchange rates: do contractionary depreciations make a difference?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 43-61.
    13. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & John Driffill, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model," GEMF Working Papers 2007-09, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    14. Richard Dennis, 2003. "Exploring the Role of the Real Exchange Rate in Australian Monetary Policy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 79(244), pages 20-38, March.
    15. Benlialper, Ahmet & Cömert, Hasan & Öcal, Nadir, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate policy in inflation targeting developing countries," IPE Working Papers 86/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    16. Yossi Yakhin, 2008. "Financial Integration And Cyclicality Of Monetary Policy In Small Open Economies," Working Papers 0811, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    17. Jacek Kotlowski, 2005. "Reaction functions of the Polish central bankers. A logit approach," Working Papers 18, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    18. Wieland, Volker & Coenen, Günter, 2002. "Inflation dynamics and international linkages: a model of the United States, the euro area and Japan," Working Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    19. Christopher Allsopp, 2002. "Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice," Discussion Papers 10, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    20. Hartmann, Daniel, 2001. "Taylor-Regel und amerikanische Geldpolitik," Violette Reihe: Schriftenreihe des Promotionsschwerpunkts "Globalisierung und Beschäftigung" 17/2001, University of Hohenheim, Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Evangelisches Studienwerk.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Coronavirus; Monetary Policy; Reaction Function; Google Mobility; Exchange Rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fiu:wpaper:2112. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sheng Guo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/defiuus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.