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Reaction functions of the Polish central bankers. A logit approach

Author

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  • Jacek Kotlowski

    () (Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

Paper presents the analysis of individual reactions functions of Polish Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members in the years 2004–2005. In the period under study the Polish central bank (National Bank of Poland) used the bias in the monetary policy as an indicator of future interest rate movements and a change of bias without a change in the short-term interest rate resulted in shifts of the yield curve comparable to those which accompanied changes in the short-term interest rate. For that reason as a monetary policy instrument in the reaction functions we use a qualitative variable, which expresses the direction of change in the restrictiveness of the monetary policy proposed by the given member of the MPC (the change of bias and/or change of central bank short-term interest rate). Taking into account the qualitative nature of the dependent variable, we employ the ordered logit model, where several variants of the reaction functions are tested. The results of the research indicate that the majority of the Polish MPC members acted forward looking rather then backward looking. The classical Taylor’s backward looking reaction function has been rejected by the data for most MPC members. Moreover the substitution of the lagged inflation by the future inflation improved the quality of the all considered models. On the other hand in the forward looking reaction function with the inflation expectations formulated for 12 months ahead the variable expressing the expectations has been significant in 6 out of 7 individual functions. The research has been completed by the sensitivity analysis of the behaviour of the MPC members against changes in the current and future inflation and changes in the output gap.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacek Kotlowski, 2005. "Reaction functions of the Polish central bankers. A logit approach," Working Papers 18, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wse:wpaper:18
    as

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    File URL: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/pl/KAE/struktura/IE/struktura/ZES/Documents/Working_Papers/aewp01-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
    3. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    4. Fok, Dennis & Franses, Philip Hans, 2002. "Ordered logit analysis for selectively sampled data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 477-497, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Jung & Gergely Kiss, 2012. "Voting by monetary policy committees: evidence from the CEE inflation-targeting countries," MNB Working Papers 2012/2, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    2. Jung, Alexander & Kiss, Gergely, 2012. "Preference heterogeneity in the CEE inflation-targeting countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 445-460.
    3. Aleksandra Halka, 2015. "Lessons from the crisis.Did central banks do their homework?," NBP Working Papers 224, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; policy rules; reaction function; ordered logit model;

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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