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News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact

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Abstract

A tailor-made survey documents consumer perceptions of the U.S. economy’s response to a large shock: the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. The survey ran at a daily frequency between March 2020 and July 2021. Consumer perceptions regarding output and inflation react rapidly. Uncertainty is pervasive. A business-cycle model calibrated to the consumer views provides an interpretation. The rise in household uncertainty amplifies the pandemic recession by a factor of three. Different perceptions about monetary policy can explain why consumers and professional forecasters agree on the recessionary impact, but have sharply divergent views about inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Dietrich & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Raphael Schoenle, 2020. "News and Uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey Evidence and Short-Run Economic Impact," Working Papers 20-12R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Dec 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:87736
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202012r
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer expectations; survey; COVID-19; large shock; monetary policy; uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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