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Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms

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  • Enders, Zeno
  • Hünnekes, Franziska
  • Müller, Gernot J.

Abstract

We assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations of actual price setters. Second, we observe the day on which firms submit their answers to the survey. We compare the responses of firms before and after monetary policy surprises and obtain two results. First, firm expectations respond to policy surprises. Second, the response becomes weaker as the surprise becomes bigger. A contractionary surprise of moderate size reduces firm expectations, while a moderate expansionary surprise raises them. Large surprises, both negative and positive, fail to alter expectations. Consistent with this result, we find that many of the ECB's announcements of non-conventional policies did not affect expectations significantly. Overall, our results are consistent with the notion that monetary policy surprises generate an information effect which is endogenous to the size of the policy surprise.

Suggested Citation

  • Enders, Zeno & Hünnekes, Franziska & Müller, Gernot J., 2019. "Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms," Working Papers 10, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:pp1859:10
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    Cited by:

    1. Zeno Enders & Franziska Hünnekes & Gernot Müller, 2019. "Firm expectations and economic activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7623, CESifo.
    2. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "The Voice of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 28592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mikosch, Heiner & Roth, Christopher & Sarferaz, Samad & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," CEPR Discussion Papers 16765, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2019. "Comments on “Monetary policy announcements and expectations: Evidence from German firms”," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 64-68.
    5. Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Information Frictions among Firms and Households," CEBI working paper series 21-07, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
    6. CHEN Cheng & SENGA Tatsuro & SUN Chang & ZHANG Hongyong, 2018. "Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Expectation Formation over the Firm's Life Cycle," Discussion papers 18010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Christian Conrad & Zeno Enders & Alexander Glas, 2020. "The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations," CESifo Working Paper Series 8528, CESifo.
    8. Ruediger Bachmann & Kai Carstensen & Stefan Lautenbacher & Martin Schneider, 2021. "Uncertainty and Change: Survey Evidence of Firms's Subjective Beliefs," CESifo Working Paper Series 9394, CESifo.
    9. repec:ajk:ajkpbs:004 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Julien Pinter & Evzen Kocenda, 2021. "Media Treatment of Monetary Policy Surprises and Their Impact on Firms' and Consumers' Expectations," Working Papers IES 2021/30, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2021.
    11. Jean-Louis Combes & Pierre Lesuisse, 2021. "Inflation and Unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," Working Papers hal-03216478, HAL.
    12. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tho Pham & Oleksandr Talavera, 2021. "'Liked', 'Shared', 'Commented': Central Bank Communication on Facebook and Twitter," Discussion Papers 21-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    13. Jarociński, Marek, 2020. "Central bank information effects and transatlantic spillovers," Working Paper Series 2482, European Central Bank.
    14. Ambrocio, Gene & Juselius, Mikael, 2020. "Dealing with the costs of the COVID-19 pandemic – what are the fiscal options?," BoF Economics Review 2/2020, Bank of Finland.
    15. Dorine Boumans & Clemens Fuest & Carla Krolage & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "Expected effects of the US tax reform on other countries: global and local survey evidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(6), pages 1608-1630, December.
    16. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy announcements; Firm expectations; Survey data; European Central Bank; Information effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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