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Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand

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Listed author(s):
  • Saten Kumar
  • Hassan Afrouzi
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Abstract

We study the (lack of) anchoring of inflation expectations in New Zealand using a new survey of firms. Managers of these firms display little anchoring of inflation expectations, despite twenty-five years of inflation targeting by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, a fact which we document along a number of dimensions. Managers are unaware of the identities of central bankers as well as central banks’ objectives, and are generally poorly informed about recent inflation dynamics. Their forecasts of future inflation reflect high levels of uncertainty and are extremely dispersed as well as volatile at both short and long-run horizons. Similar results can be found in the U.S. using currently available surveys as shown in Binder (2015).

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 21814.

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Date of creation: Dec 2015
Publication status: published as Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, vol 2015(2), pages 151-225.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21814
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
  • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
  • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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  1. Fernando E. Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Optimal Price Setting With Observation and Menu Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1909-1960.
  2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
  4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
  5. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "Endogenous information, menu costs and inflation persistence," NBER Working Papers 14184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
  7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2015. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 21092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  10. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Strategic Interaction among Heterogeneous Price-Setters in an Estimated DSGE Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 920-940, August.
  11. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 20715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:

  1. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "Necessity as the Mother of Invention: Monetary Policy after the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 22735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2017. "A Tale of Two Cities: An Examination of Medallion Prices in New York and Chicago," Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series 33, Villanova School of Business Department of Economics and Statistics.
  3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Saten Kumar, 2015. "How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 21092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael Haliassos & Hector F. CALVO PARDO & Chryssi Giannitsarou & Luc Arrondel, 2016. "Informative Social Interactions," 2016 Meeting Papers 636, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry, 2016. "Money supply and inflation in Europe: Is there still a connection?," IW policy papers 17/2016E, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research.
  6. repec:eee:jmacro:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:238-251 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Diermeier, Matthias & Goecke, Henry, 2016. "Geldmenge und Inflation in Europa: Ist der Zusammenhang verloren?," IW policy papers 17/2016, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) / Cologne Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Pierre Fortin, 2016. "A Stable 4% Inflation Could Get Canadians One Half Million More Jobs," Cahiers de recherche 1604, CIRPEE.
  9. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2016. "Trust in the Central Bank and Inflation Expectations," CSEF Working Papers 458, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  10. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
  11. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination," NBER Working Papers 22297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2015. "Overcoming the Lost Decades? Abenomics after Three Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 385-431.
  13. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 59-108.
  14. Jakob de Haan & Marco Hoeberichts & Renske Maas & Federica Teppa, 2016. "Inflation in the euro area and why it matters," DNB Occasional Studies 1403, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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