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A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment

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  • Laurence Ball
  • Sandeep Mazumder

Abstract

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 20715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20715
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Gilchrist & Raphael Schoenle & Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 785-823, March.
    2. Murphy, Robert G., 2014. "Explaining inflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 228-244.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    4. Laurence Ball & Sandeep Mazumder, 2011. "Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 337-405.
    5. Alan B. Krueger & Judd Cramer & David Cho, 2014. "Are the Long-Term Unemployed on the Margins of the Labor Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 229-299.
    6. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2012. "The Making Of A Great Contraction With A Liquidity Trap and A Jobless Recovery," CEPR Discussion Papers 9237, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Jordi Galí, 2008. "Introduction to Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework," Introductory Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework Princeton University Press.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Phillips Curve and Inflation
      by thebusinesscycleblog in The business cycle blog on 2016-05-21 23:08:29

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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Ball & Anusha Chari & Prachi Mishra, 2016. "Understanding Inflation in India," NBER Working Papers 22948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:115-139 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:agr:journl:v:2(615):y:2018:i:2(615):p:195-204 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saten Kumar & Hassan Afrouzi & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 151-225.
    5. Craighead, William, 2016. "Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model," MPRA Paper 70777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:eee:jmacro:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:145-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Robert G. Murphy, 2016. "Why Has Inflation Been So Unresponsive to Economic Activity in Recent Years?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 920, Boston College Department of Economics.
    8. William Gatt, 2016. "Time variation, asymmetry and threshold effect in Malta's Phillips curve," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    9. Harendra Behera & Garima Wahi & Muneesh Kapur, 2017. "Phillips Curve Relationship in India: Evidence from State-Level Analysis," Working Papers id:11973, eSocialSciences.
    10. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    11. Owen Grech & Noel Rapa, 2016. "STREAM: A structural macro-econometric model of the Maltese economy," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2016, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. repec:eee:ecmode:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:202-213 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dennis Bonam & Jakob de Haan & Duncan van Limbergen, 2018. "Time-varying wage Phillips curves in the euro area with a new measure for labor market slack," DNB Working Papers 587, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Rafi Melnick & Till Strohsal, 2016. "Disinflation and the Phillips Curve: Israel 1986-2015," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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