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The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment

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  • Llaudes, Ricardo

Abstract

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of this behavior in a set of OECD countries. For this purpose, I propose a new specification of the Phillips Curve that contains different unemployment lengths in a time-varying NAIRU setting. This is done by constructing an index of unemployment that assigns different weights to the unemployed based on the length of their spell. The results show that unemployment duration matters in the determination of prices and wages, and that a smaller weight ought to be given to the long-term unemployed. This modified model has important implications for the policy maker: It produces more accurate forecasts of inflation and more precise estimates of the NAIRU. JEL Classification: C22, E31, E50, J64

Suggested Citation

  • Llaudes, Ricardo, 2005. "The Phillips curve and long-term unemployment," Working Paper Series 441, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Blanchard, Olivier & Wolfers, Justin, 2000. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 1-33, March.
    6. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    7. Acemoglu, Daron, 1995. "Public Policy in a Model of Long-Term Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(246), pages 161-178, May.
    8. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
    9. Blackaby, David H & Hunt, Lester C, 1992. "The "Wage Curve" and Long-term Unemployment: A Cautionary Note," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(4), pages 419-428, December.
    10. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    11. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mabrouk Chetouane & Matthieu Lemoine & Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, 2011. "Impact de la crise sur la croissance potentielle. Une approche par les modèles à composantes inobservables," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 89-112.
    2. repec:nbp:nbpbik:v:47:y:2016:i:6:p:435-462 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Crisis, potential output and hysteresis," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 149, pages 1-14.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    5. Bermingham, Colin & Coates, Dermot & Larkin, John & O'Brien, Derry & O'Reilly, Gerard, 2012. "Explaining Irish Inflation During the Financial Crisis," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Bazhal, Iurii, 2015. "Impact of Wage Policy on Economic Growth in Transitive Countries and New Interpretation of the Phillips Curve," MPRA Paper 67106, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 07 Oct 2015.
    7. Konstantins Benkovskis & Dainis Stikuts, 2006. "Latvia's Macroeconomic Model," Working Papers 2006/02, Latvijas Banka.
    8. Dotsey, Michael & Fujita, Shigeru & Stark, Tom, 2011. "Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?," Working Papers 11-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Planas, Christophe & Roeger, Werner & Rossi, Alessandro, 2007. "How much has labour taxation contributed to European structural unemployment?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1359-1375, April.
    10. Craighead, William, 2016. "Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model," MPRA Paper 70777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6706 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Hysteresis," Economics Series Working Papers 250, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2009. "Hysteresis in the development of unemployment: the EU and US experience," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 267-276, December.
    14. Florian Kajuth, 2016. "NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(1), pages 104-125, February.
    15. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2016. "A wedge in the dual mandate: Monetary policy and long-term unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 5-18.
    16. Lemoine, M. & de la Serve, M.E. & Chetouane, M., 2011. "Impact of the crisis on potential growth: An approach based on unobserved component models (in french)," Working papers 331, Banque de France.
    17. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    18. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Jósef Sigurdsson, 2013. "How "Natural" is the Natural Rate? Unemployment Hysteresis in Iceland," Economics wp64, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    19. David N. F. Bell & David G. Blanchflower, 2014. "Labor Market Slack in the United Kingdom," Working Paper Series WP14-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    20. Aleksejs Melihovs & Anna Zasova, 2007. "Estimation of the Phillips Curve for Latvia," Working Papers 2007/03, Latvijas Banka.
    21. Ekkehard Ernst & Peter Flaschel & Christian Proano & Willi Semmler, 2006. "Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves," IMK Working Paper 04-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    22. Frank Smets, 2010. "Commetary: modeling inflation after the crisis," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 221-234.
    23. Kumar, Anil & M. Orrenius, Pia, 2016. "A closer look at the Phillips curve using state-level data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 84-102.
    24. Aleksejs Meļihovs & Anna Zasova, 2009. "Assessment of the natural rate of unemployment and capacity utilisation in Latvia," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 25-46, December.
    25. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman filter; Long-term unemployment; NAIRU; Phillips curve;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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